The Philadelphia Bulletin: Iran’s First Nuclear Power Plant Passes Its Main Tests

by David Bedein

JERUSALEM - Iran has announced that its first nuclear power plant in the southern Iranian city of Bushehr has successfully passed the main tests and expressed the hope that the plant would launch operation within the next few months.

“Main tests of Bushehr nuclear power plant have been accomplished successfully,” Ali Akbar Salehi, chief of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), said in Iran’s state TV channel on Tuesday, adding another test will be carried out within the next few months so that we can include nuclear fuel into the power plant’s cycle.

Mr. Salehi, Iran’s former ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), called the West’s concern on Iran’s access to nuclear energy “political” and said, “the important issue is that Iran has got access to the required knowledge for employment of peaceful nuclear energy, although the West and particularly the U.S. feared from Iran’s access to the technology.”

He continued, “The U.S. can not put severe pressure on North Korea since the country has close cooperation with South Korea, Russia and China, whereas the IAEA inspectors visit Iran every two weeks and, despite of all observations, they are doubtful about Iran’s nuclear programs.”

He added, “Massacre has no place in Islamic Republic of Iran’s doctrine, and we do not want production of nuclear weapons.”

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The Philadelphia Bulletin: Iran Launches Largest Air Force Exercise

by David Bedein

JERUSALEM - Iran launched its largest air force exercise this past week.

The air exercise is part of an effort to introduce new indigenous platforms and systems and protect nuclear facilities. They said the five-day exercise, titled “Seal of the Prophets,” began last Sunday and would integrate operations by the regular air force and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

“The Iranian Air Force and IRGC will hold the largest air exercise in the history of the country,” Iranian Air Defense Commander Brig. Gen. Ahmed Miqani said Nov. 21.

Mr. Miqani told a news conference that Seal of the Prophets is taking place in central and western Iran and focus on air space protection and air defense. He said the exercise tested new systems, including air defense and electronic warfare. He said Iran has deployed air defense batteries around its nuclear facilities.

“The Air Defense Command is responsible for sensitive installations in the country, including nuclear facilities and will shoot down any plane that violates Iranian air space,” Mr. Miqani said. “This week’s air defense maneuvers will be held with the intention of protecting the country’s nuclear facilities.”

The exercise would also seek to enhance interoperability between fighter jets of the regular air force and IRGC. They said Seal of the Prophets would also test integration of operations by combat and reconnaissance platforms.

“Our unit will be in charge of the maneuver, but there will be units from IRGC and the Basij militia,” Mr. Miqani said.

Seal of the Prophet would contain three stages and envisioned an attack by an unnamed enemy, officials said. They said the exercise would test Russian-origin air defense systems, including the TOR-M1 and Pantsyr-S1.

Iran has been awaiting the longer-range S-300 system from Moscow. Mr. Miqani said Iran would test S-300 interceptors, but did not elaborate.

“In various maneuvers, new and modern missile networks will be used and evaluated, including the advanced S-300 missiles, for which production capability exists in Iran,” Mr. Miqani said.

IRGC has asserted that Iran reached the capability to defend against any Israeli air strike. IRGC Air Force Chief Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh said the military has developed an air defense umbrella that combined surface-to-air missiles, surface-to-surface missiles and fighter jets.

“Be assured that in case of aggression, the Zionist F-15 and F-16s will be trapped by our air defense and destroyed,” Mr. Hajizadeh said. “And, if one of their aircraft manages to escape Iran’s air defense, the bases from which these aircraft took off will be struck by our destructive ground to ground missiles.”

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The Philadelphia Bulletin: Israel Warned To Prepare For Ballistic Missile Threats

by David Bedein

Jerusalem - Israel has been urged to prepare for ballistic missile threats from Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

A senior defense executive warned that Israel’s military and Defense Ministry might not have been allowed to prepare its missile defense umbrella to combat possible future threats from Middle East states, which are not directly threatening Israel at this time, due to political constraints.

The executive, who works closely with the Defense Ministry, said the threat could come from Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, which have been developing or procuring medium- and intermediate-range missiles.

“We are not paying attention to what is going on in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey,” Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) vice president Yair Ramati said.

Mr. Ramati, who for years headed IAI’s Arrow missile defense program, cited Turkey’s growing missile and rocket capabilities.

He said Ankara has been acquiring U.S. and Chinese systems as well as developing Turkish weapons.

This included the Chinese-origin 302 mm rocket, with a range of 150 kilometers.

The Israel Defense Ministry has never cited Egypt or Turkey as threats. Egypt has maintained a peace treaty with Israel since 1979, and Turkey was regarded as a strategic ally of the Jewish state from 1996 until 2008. Over the last year, Turkey increased ties with neighboring Iran and Syria.

In a presentation to the International Aerospace Conference and Exhibition-Israel on Nov. 17, Mr. Ramati said Egypt and other Arab states could constitute missile threats by 2020. He said Saudi Arabia, concerned over Iran’s military modernization effort, was expected to replace its Chinese-origin intermediate-range CSSS2 for an advanced modern ballistic missile.

Yet, leading strategists in Israel forget that Saudi Arabia remains in a state of war with Israel. Saudi Arabia is the only neighboring country contiguous to Israel to have never signed a peace treaty or even an armistice with Israel since 1948.

Mr. Ramati stated clearly that Israeli missile defense exercises do not take the Egyptian, Saudi and Turkish capabilities into account.

He suggested that the Defense Ministry and military were under political constraints from the government.

“Are these scenarios politically correct?” Mr. Ramati asked.

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The Philadelphia Bulletin: Israel: Hezbollah Acquired Long-Range Missiles

by David Bedein

JERUSALEM - Israel's military has detected Hezbollah acquisition of missiles and rockets with ranges of up to 325 kilometers. They said the weapons could strike targets in most of Israel.

"Some of them have a range of 300 kilometers (180 miles) and some of them have a range of up to 325 kilometers," Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi said.

In a Nov. 10 briefing to the Israel Knesset Parliamentary Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Mr. Ashkenazi said Hezbollah has already deployed the long-range rockets in Lebanon. He said a rocket attack from the Beirut area could reach the nuclear reactor in the southern Israeli city of Dimona.

"There is a paradox," Mr. Ashkenazi told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee said. "On one hand, there is calm. But when you peek over the fence you can see armament and empowerment."

The latest acquisition marked the longest-range missiles and rockets in Hezbollah's arsenal. Until this year, they said, Hezbollah wielded weapons with a range of about 120 miles.

Mr. Ashkenazi did not identify the latest Hezbollah missile. The missile approximated the range of the Soviet-origin Scud B.

Hezbollah has amassed an arsenal of 40,000 missiles and rockets, most of them short-range weapons. They said Iran has increased weapons and other military support to its Lebanese proxy.

"We don't delude ourselves," Mr. Ashkenazi said. "The situation is delicate and Hezbollah is growing stronger all the time. The Iranian challenge is to increase control over the Middle East through training, arms and money provided to all terror organizations."

The Hezbollah acquisition of arms from Iran and Syria represents a violation of UN Resolution 1701, which implemented a ceasefire that put an end to the Second Israel-Lebanon War in August 2006.

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The Philadelphia Bulletin: Vienna Agreement Has Israelis Uneasy

by David Bedein

Jerusalem - The talks at the headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna ended in a draft agreement according to which Iran would transfer most of the uranium in its possession for enrichment outside its borders.

The fact that this refers to “most of the uranium” and not all of it, leaves a breach for a thief to slip through. Who can know for certain and who in Iran can force the regime to adhere to the Vienna agreement? The “small quantity” of uranium can be moved from one nuclear site to another and, at most by an optimistic forecast, the implementation of the agreement can somewhat delay the production of the doomsday weapon.

The news that Iran would hand over most of the low-grade enriched uranium in its possession for enrichment outside its borders was received by Israel as another Iranian victory, which would bring Tehran another step closer to the bomb.

It has not been lost on all Middle Eastern observers that Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s strategic objective is to develop nuclear weapons in order to become a regional power that can dictate the course of events in the Middle East.

His regime is serious, determined and cunning and will not give up such a supreme objective just because the enlightened world demands that it honor a previous commitment, which was given when Iran joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Officially, Israel has refrained from commenting on reports about a possible agreement with Iran, but behind the scenes, Jerusalem is following developments with concern and suspicion.

Israeli officials consider such an agreement as no more than an Iranian tactical move to buy more time and relieve the pressure.

Israel does not believe that Iran will agree to the conditions that the U.S., Russia and France have set, and believes that it will continue its effort to become a nuclear superpower. Israelis have little trust in the chairman of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed El-Baradei, who is involved in the talks.

Evidence of this suspicion could be heard in the statements that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak made yesterday during their meeting with Ms. Susan Rice, the United States ambassador to the United Nations.

Mr. Barak claimed that the superpowers must continue to keep track of Iran’s efforts to obtain nuclear weapons.

“The Iranians have misled the West in the past,” Barak said, pointing out preparations must continue for the imposition of severe sanctions on the Ayatollahs’ regime if it should turn out within several months that the Iranians are not cooperating fully with the international community.

Mr. Barak suggested to Ms. Rice that no alternative, including a military attack, could be ruled out, even if an agreement should be signed in the end, but it is found that Iran has tricked the West once again.

Israeli officials also remind the world that a uranium-enrichment compound, which was discovered in Qom. This stems from the belief, which the U.S. intelligence community shares, that these installations are only part of a more comprehensive network that the Iranians are hiding.

Barak added, in any case, Israel is not taking any option off the table.

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The Philadelphia Bulletin: Israeli Reaction to North Korea - 'We Told You So'

by David Bedein

From Israel’s perspective, North Korea’s nuclear test, conducted Monday, was almost old news. Although the world was shocked when the news broke, Israeli security and Foreign Ministry officials could have said: “We told you so.”

Sources in the Israeli security establishment say they have been reporting on the connections between North Korea and Iran since the mid-1990s, when they started warning that North Korean technology was behind Iran’s Shahab missile. North Korean military, missile and nuclear experts have roamed the planet, mainly in the Middle East, seeking to sell their technologies to the highest bidder.

“And two years ago we reported - and backed it up with documentation - that North Korea was building Syria a nuclear reactor, and after we told them, we also attacked and destroyed it, to make sure that the threat was removed,” the sources said.

From Israel’s perspective, this is an existential issue: If the Americans blink, that will be sensed very clearly, and it will tell North Korea that it can continue to go about its nuclear weapons business. The North Korean developments likely will lead to Syria gaining improved missile technology and Iran accelerating its nuclear program.

Another senior Israeli official angrily chastised the United States for its lack of action after it learned North Korea was helping Syria build a nuclear reactor.

“What did the Americans do with all that? Not much,” the official said. “The Syrian reactor ought to have taught them that North Korea had lied throughout the entire affair, but Washington nevertheless preferred to persevere with its critical dialogue.

“The result of that is that the missiles were fired, the tests continued. Yesterday was a resounding slap on the cheek, which ostensibly is supposed to indicate to all of us that the time has come for the administration either to sober up, or for us to despair of it.”

Barak: ‘Talk And Sanctions Don’t Stop Rogue Regimes’

Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak called on the United States and the international community to learn lessons from North Korea’s nuclear defiance.

“It is incumbent upon the United States and the international community to learn the lessons so as to convey a clear message to Iran,” Mr. Barak said. “Israel is concerned by the free world’s failure to stand up to North Korea.

“Talk, declarations and soft sanctions do not stop rogue regimes from endangering world peace. This test is a warning sign and a message to the world to wake up.”

Mr. Barak also expressed skepticism about the United States’ ability to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power.

“The chance of the dialogue between the United States and Iran producing an end to the Iranian effort to advance towards the attainment of a military nuclear capability is very low,” said Mr. Barak. “The Americans understand that the chance is very low, just that they think that there is a logic to this dialogue and yet, if that doesn’t happen, they are going to have to cope with the significance of that further on.”

The Defense minister says he believes the dialogue between the United States and Iran needs to be time limited, but the Obama administration has refrained from setting a firm timetable so far.

Tzahi Hanegbi, chairman of the Israeli Knesset Parliament Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, was more explicit, saying: “The North Koreans’ flaunted nuclear test was registered not only by the seismographs, but mainly by the Iranian regime of ayatollahs. If the United States surrenders unconditionally to the axis of evil, the entire world can expect to face difficult and demanding moments.”

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The Philadelphia Bulletin: Study - Israel Could Survive Nuke Attack

by David Bedein

A new study based on Israeli and U.S. data says the Jewish state could survive being hit by as many as 80 nuclear weapons. According to Middle East Newsline, the study says Israeli casualties could be significantly reduced through the construction of bomb shelters and dispersal of the population.

Titled “Nuclear Threat: The New Challenge to Missile Defense Systems,” the report examines the possible effects of a nuclear strike on Tel Aviv, Israel’s commercial center.

“The atomic bomb does not mean doomsday,” said Yehoshua Sokol, author of the report and a member of the Ashkelon-based Academic Forum for Nuclear Awareness and a staffer at Falcon Analytics. “Simple things like bomb shelters and dispersal of the population would help significantly.”

This report marks the first disclosed study of the repercussions of a nuclear attack on Israel, as well as recommendations to reduce casualties.

The report, presented to the Israel Defense Ministry and the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, was assisted by Israeli government engineers and scientists, including from the Soreq Nuclear Research Center, regarded as the Israeli equivalent of the Livermore National Laboratory in the United States.

“If we build a system that stresses the construction of protected rooms [within homes and office buildings] then we could eliminate 75 percent of the casualties,” Mr. Sokol said. “It’s as if we had intercepted 75 percent of the incoming [nuclear] missiles.”

The study examined the likely outcome of an attack by a 15-kiloton atomic bomb, similar to that dropped by the United States on the Japanese city of Hiroshima in 1945.

The report estimates an atomic bomb dropped on Tel Aviv would result in 6,000 casualties if residents in the affected area were in protected rooms. Without protection, 25,000 people likely would die.

The study says 7,000 people would be killed if an atomic bomb fell on the less populated Israeli city of Ramle, located east of Tel Aviv.

About 1,000 people would be killed if an atom bomb struck Israeli communities in the northern West Bank.

In both cases, the study envisioned that the population would not be protected.

The worst-case scenario involved Israel being hit by 80 nuclear weapons. The study envisions 75,000 casualties with a population protected by bomb shelters. If no precautions are taken Israel could suffer as many as 300,000 dead.

Mr. Sokol, citing Hiroshima, said the immediate lethality radius from the epicenter of an atomic blast could be no more than 120 feet. As a result, he said, a nuclear attack on Tel Aviv would probably spare most of its residential and office towers.

“To knock out Aziereli (the tallest building in Tel Aviv) or any other big building, you would need a direct or near direct hit by an atomic bomb,” Mr. Sokol said.

Referring to the American atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Mr. Sokol played down the prospect of massive casualties from nuclear radiation.

Mr. Sokol, citing U.S. data, said fewer than 1,000 people died from cancer in the two Japanese cities from 1945 to 1998.

About 100,000 people were killed in the combined U.S. nuclear attacks.

As a result, Mr. Sokol said, the most likely nuclear scenario was of an electro-magnetic pulse attack on Israel. This would mean using a nuclear weapon that would explode at least 20 miles in altitude and knock out the Jewish state’s electronic and electrical grid of the Jewish state. The report concludes Israel needs to prepare by upgrading its electronic and electrical infrastructures.

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The Philadelphia Bulletin: Majority of Israelis Believe Iran will Develop Nuclear Bomb

by David Bedein

Although 49 percent of the Israeli public believes that Israel must wait and see whether American policy succeeds regarding Iran, 74 percent of the public does not believe that the policy of dialogue will succeed, according to a new poll conducted by the Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University on the evening its two-day research conference this week.

According to the poll, the Israeli public is divided on the question of whether Israel should attack or not. The poll says Israelis of 42 years of age and over are significantly more concerned about the Iranian bomb than their younger counterparts.

Eighty-nine percent of those 42 and over are concerned, compared with 61 percent of the young people.

There is a similar gap between the age groups regarding possible emigration from Israel if Iran should develop a nuclear bomb (89 percent and 64 percent, respectively, will consider emigrating). The secular population of the Israeli much more concerned than the religious population: 88 percent of the secular population is worried, while 67 percent of the religious population is concerned.

In all, that has to do with possible Israeli policy in response to the Iranian threat, 61 percent of Israeli men support an attack, as compared with 47 percent of the women.

Professor David Menashri, the head of the center, said: “The unbridled language of President Ahmadinejad and his threats to wipe Israel off the map of history, accompanied by a program to develop nuclear capability and the upgrading of ballistic missiles, together with Iran’s increasing involvement in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip - all these have created real concern among Israelis. In addition, it appears that the declarations of Israeli leaders that regard Iran as an ‘existential threat,’ which were meant to make Israel’s concern clear to the world, only raised the threshold of fear among the Israeli public.”

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The Philadelphia Bulletin: Study - Iran Issue Will 'Make or Break' US President

by David Bedein

A report issued on the eve of today’s summit between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Barack Obama says U.S. policy toward Iran’s nuclear program could determine the outcome of the president’s administration.

The report, published by The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), warns the issue could be “the Cuban missile crisis all over again.”

“It will test the ability of the newly-elected U.S. president to confront the adversary and better him. In a way, this is a make-or-break situation for Obama,” analyst Ephraim Asculai wrote in the INSS report, titled “The Game with Iran.”

The INSS report said Tehran would test Mr. Obama’s resolve by continuing uranium enrichment and other activities required for nuclear weapons development.

It also says the United States will likely be forced to confront rising instability in the Middle East sparked by Iran’s nuclear program, as well as by Tehran’s support for insurgency groups. The report cited Egypt’s capture of an alleged Hezbollah network, which reportedly planned attacks throughout the Sinai Peninsula as an example.

“Egypt is confronting Iran and instability is in the air,” the report said. “Perhaps more than the recent U.S. elections, the timetable is now dictated by the closing deadline of Iran’s nuclear progress.”

Earlier this month, CIA director Leon Panetta held a meeting with the Israeli prime minister and reportedly demanded Israel not take any military action against Iran.

Officials said Mr. Obama ordered Mr. Panetta’s visit because he wanted to avoid a long discussion on Iran during today’s meeting in Washington.

Mr. Asculai, a former official in the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, said the Obama administration likely will pursue a diplomatic solution to Iran’s outlawed uranium enrichment program. But the report advises Mr. Obama to set a deadline for obtaining diplomatic results.

“In setting the time limit, the president must remember that any time gained by the Iranians during the negotiation process would be used to further advance their project,” the report warned.

The report said Iran could exploit the Obama administration’s diplomatic endeavors by insisting its nuclear project is nonnegotiable. Doing so, the report said, would harm U.S. influence throughout the Middle East, particularly among the Gulf Cooperation Council states, such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

Mr. Asculai urged Israel to delay plans to attack Iran and instead recommended the Netanyahu government give Mr. Obama time to discover how receptive Iran is to diplomacy.

“Should engagement fail, Israel would be in a better position to convince the United States, if not to actively support, then at least not to interfere, with any military action,” the report said.

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