The Philadelphia Bulletin: Al-Qaeda Still Seen as Greatest Threat to Persian Gulf States

by David Bedein

The Middle East Newsline has confirmed the U.S. Central Command, responsible for U.S. military operations in the Middle East and Central Asia, has determined that al-Qaida poses a threat to the six Gulf Cooperation Council states as well as neighboring Iraq and Yemen. It says al-Qaida, flushed with success in Afghanistan, has sought to expand its presence throughout the Gulf region.

“We face, in this region, a number of inter-related threats and challenges from trans-national to state-centric, to those who blur the lines between the two,” Centcom chief Gen. David Petraeus said. “At the transnational level, violent extremism is, needless to say, the most pressing challenge. Al-Qaida and its affiliates pose the greatest such threat to many states in the region.”

In a conference in Manama, Centcom commanders reviewed threats to U.S. allies in the Gulf. The command envisioned an increasing al-Qaida threat amid the global economic crisis, particularly in Yemen.

“Such approaches involve significantly more than the application of just military or kinetic action,” Gen. Petraeus said. “In fact, they must do far more if they are to address not just the symptoms of current challenges, but also their underlying causes. The lack of sustainable economic development in certain parts of this region, for example, is not just a social or humanitarian issue. It is a serious security concern as well.”

The three-day conference, which ended on Friday, also reviewed Centcom cooperation plans in the Gulf. Officials said a key partner would be the U.S. Fifth Fleet.

“We will continue to work with our partners in the region to respond to these challenges and help ensure peace and stability in the region,” Fifth Fleet commander Vice Adm. William Gortney said. “U.S. naval forces have operated in the region for six decades, and we’ll be here for many more to come.”

Anti-piracy operations would remain a key element in expanding U.S. military cooperation. They said the need to combat Somali-based piracy in the Arabian Sea and Red Sea would bring together most GCC states as well as Yemen.

“The complex threats that we face at sea require cooperative solutions,” Vice Adm. Gortney said.

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The Philadelphia Bulletin: Study - Iran Issue Will 'Make or Break' US President

by David Bedein

A report issued on the eve of today’s summit between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Barack Obama says U.S. policy toward Iran’s nuclear program could determine the outcome of the president’s administration.

The report, published by The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), warns the issue could be “the Cuban missile crisis all over again.”

“It will test the ability of the newly-elected U.S. president to confront the adversary and better him. In a way, this is a make-or-break situation for Obama,” analyst Ephraim Asculai wrote in the INSS report, titled “The Game with Iran.”

The INSS report said Tehran would test Mr. Obama’s resolve by continuing uranium enrichment and other activities required for nuclear weapons development.

It also says the United States will likely be forced to confront rising instability in the Middle East sparked by Iran’s nuclear program, as well as by Tehran’s support for insurgency groups. The report cited Egypt’s capture of an alleged Hezbollah network, which reportedly planned attacks throughout the Sinai Peninsula as an example.

“Egypt is confronting Iran and instability is in the air,” the report said. “Perhaps more than the recent U.S. elections, the timetable is now dictated by the closing deadline of Iran’s nuclear progress.”

Earlier this month, CIA director Leon Panetta held a meeting with the Israeli prime minister and reportedly demanded Israel not take any military action against Iran.

Officials said Mr. Obama ordered Mr. Panetta’s visit because he wanted to avoid a long discussion on Iran during today’s meeting in Washington.

Mr. Asculai, a former official in the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, said the Obama administration likely will pursue a diplomatic solution to Iran’s outlawed uranium enrichment program. But the report advises Mr. Obama to set a deadline for obtaining diplomatic results.

“In setting the time limit, the president must remember that any time gained by the Iranians during the negotiation process would be used to further advance their project,” the report warned.

The report said Iran could exploit the Obama administration’s diplomatic endeavors by insisting its nuclear project is nonnegotiable. Doing so, the report said, would harm U.S. influence throughout the Middle East, particularly among the Gulf Cooperation Council states, such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

Mr. Asculai urged Israel to delay plans to attack Iran and instead recommended the Netanyahu government give Mr. Obama time to discover how receptive Iran is to diplomacy.

“Should engagement fail, Israel would be in a better position to convince the United States, if not to actively support, then at least not to interfere, with any military action,” the report said.

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