Foreign Policy: Obama's Settlements Ultimatum

by Steven J Rosen for Foreign Policy

U.S. President Barack Obama's decision to confront Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Israeli construction activity in East Jerusalem has been greeted by a hail of praise, especially from people impatient to proceed with peace negotiations with the Palestinians. The belief seems to be that meeting this issue head-on will accelerate progress toward an agreement ending a conflict that has festered for generations. The historical record suggests a different conclusion.

The assumption that a faceoff over construction in Jerusalem will advance negotiations has not been subjected to much scrutiny. But the last two decades show that progress has occurred not when this issue was put first, but when it was finessed and left for the final status negotiations on Jerusalem.

Consider this: If, 17 years ago, U.S. President Bill Clinton or Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat had insisted that Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin freeze all settlement construction, including in Jerusalem, before Arafat would sit down with Rabin, there would have been no Oslo agreements. By Rabin's own account, in comments before the Knesset, Israel's parliament, he had to fudge the issue.

"I explained to the president of the United States," he said,"that I wouldn't forbid Jews from building privately in the area of Judea and Samaria... I am sorry that within united Jerusalem construction is not more massive."

The same year as the famous handshake on the White House lawn, 1993, the Rabin government completed the construction of more than 6,000 units in the Pisgat Zeev neighborhood of East Jerusalem, out of a total of 13,000 units that were in various stages of completion in areas of the city that had been outside Israeli lines before 1967.

So Arafat did sit down with Rabin, even while Israel's construction in Jerusalem continued. And, on Sept. 13, 1993, the Oslo peace accord was signed -- by the same Mahmoud Abbas who refuses to sit down today. And on October 14, 1994, Rabin, who built homes for Jews in East Jerusalem, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Altogether, Israel completed 30,000 dwelling units in the West Bank, Gaza, and Jerusalem in the four years of Rabin's government. Even the Jan. 9, 1995, announcement of a plan to build 15,000 additional apartments in East Jerusalem neighborhoods beyond the 1967 borders (especially Pisgat Zeev, Neve Yaacov, Gilo, and Har Homa) did not stop negotiations, which resulted in the Oslo II accord of September 28, 1995. Israeli construction continued while Abbas and Rabin signed an historic accord.

And what was the American policy toward Rabin's construction of Jewish homes in East Jerusalem? Mild annoyance.

On Jan. 3, 1995, the State Department spokesman said mildly, in response to the Rabin government's announcement of expanded construction, "The parties themselves... have to judge whether it presents any kind of a problem in their own dialogue. The important thing is to continue to meet." The spokesman added on Jan. 10, 1995, "We admit that settlements are a problem, but we... enjoin the parties to deal with these issues in their negotiations."

Clinton's Middle East peace advisor, Martin Indyk, told the U.S. Senate on Feb. 2, 1995, that Rabin's government had recently "given approval for something like 4,000 to 5,000 new housing units to go up in settlements around the Jerusalem area." But, he said, Clinton had decided to stay out of it. "To take action now that would in one way or another... would be very explosive in the negotiations, and frankly, would put us out of business as a facilitator of those negotiations." Had Clinton taken Obama's approach, it might well have exploded the negotiations and brought the Oslo process to a halt.

Nor was this example of construction in Jerusalem while diplomacy made progress an isolated exception. Two years after Oslo II, in January 1997, Abbas and Arafat sat down with another Israeli prime minister, Netanyahu, to sign the Hebron Protocol, which provided for the withdrawal of the Israeli armed forces from 80 percent of the very sensitive area of Hebron in the West Bank. Arafat and Abbas had no illusions that Netanyahu intended to freeze Israeli construction in East Jerusalem. In fact, Netanyahu had announced that he would proceed with the building of Har Homa, a controversial Israeli suburb conceived by Rabin. Nor, another 18 months later, did the Palestinians' fierce objections to Har Homa stop them from joining the Wye Plantation negotiations from October 15-23, 1998. These talks led to an agreement known as the Wye River Memorandum, in which Netanyahu, under considerable pressure from President Clinton, agreed to pull the Israel Defense Forces out of an additional 13 percent of the West Bank. This move was fiercely opposed by Netanyahu's right flank, and it led to his downfall in January 1999 when the hard-liners in his coalition defected.

Had Clinton demanded Netanyahu freeze construction in Jerusalem and Arafat made it a precondition for negotiations, neither the Hebron nor Wye agreements would have been signed.

The Labor government that was elected in the wake of Netanyahu's ouster continued the pattern of building in Jerusalem while moving forward in negotiations with the Palestinians. At the Camp David Summit (July 11-25, 2000), then Prime Minister Ehud Barak went past Israel's past "red lines" and the Palestinians most of the West Bank and a capital in Jerusalem, along with land swaps. But, at the same time that he was taking these unprecedented steps, Barak was accelerating the construction of Har Homa and other Jerusalem communities across the pre-1967 line. While the talks accelerated, Barak also moved ahead with the Ras al-Amud neighborhood on the Mount of Olives in Jerusalem. President Clinton said he " would have preferred that this decision was not taken." But Clinton added that the United States "cannot prevent Israel from building in Har-Homa." Haim Ramon, Rabin's minister for Jerusalem affairs, said "I would like to make it clear that the government has no intention of stopping the building at Har Homa."

Here again, had Clinton taken Obama's position and issued an ultimatum demanding that all construction in Jerusalem stop, and had Arafat made that American demand a precondition to begin negotiations, the Camp David Summit of 2000 and the Taba talks in January 2001 would not have occurred.

The next Israeli government, headed by retired general Ariel Sharon, did not seek any breakthroughs in negotiations with the Palestinians. But Sharon ordered the most dramatic territorial concession in Israel's history since 1967: the withdrawal of all Israeli soldiers from every square inch of Gaza along with the abandonment of 21 settlements in Gaza and four in the West Bank, in the "unilateral disengagement" of August-December 2005. Sharon pulled 8,000 Israeli settlers from their homes against fierce opposition from his right flank.

President George W. Bush played a key role in making Sharon's withdrawal from Gaza possible by softening U.S. policy on the settlement issue. To offset the concession that Sharon was making, and counter opposition to it from Israel's right, he wrote a letter to Sharon on April 14, 2004, acknowledging that, "In light of new realities on the ground, including already existing major Israeli populations centers, it is unrealistic to expect that the outcome of final status negotiations will be a full and complete return to the armistice lines of 1949.... It is realistic to expect that any final status agreement will only be achieved on the basis of mutually agreed changes that reflect these realities." One implication of the letter was that the United States would treat Israeli construction in communities that all parties knew will remain part of Israel in any future two-state agreement, like the Jewish neighborhoods of Jerusalem, differently from settlement activity on controversial areas in the interior of the West Bank.

Elliott Abrams, the White House advisor who negotiated the Bush administration's compromises on the natural growth of settlement, explained the significance of the step Bush took last June in the Wall Street Journal: "There were indeed agreements between Israel and the United States regarding the growth of Israeli settlements on the West Bank.... The prime minister of Israel relied on them in undertaking a wrenching political reorientation... the removal of every single Israeli citizen, settlement and military position in Gaza.... There was a bargained-for exchange. Mr. Sharon was determined to... confront his former allies on Israel's right by abandoning the 'Greater Israel' position.... He asked for our support and got it, including the agreement that we would not demand a total settlement freeze."

There were expressions of unhappiness by Palestinian leaders and European diplomats about the Bush policy of giving a green light to limited construction in Jerusalem and certain settlement blocs. But the Bush administration defended it as a realistic policy that moved the peace process forward.

Four months after the disengagement from Gaza, on Jan. 4, 2006, Sharon went into a coma. His deputy, Ehud Olmert, became prime minister. Olmert sought a resumption of negotiations with the Palestinians. Following the Annapolis Summit in November 2007, Abbas, who had taken over as president of the Palestinian Authority and head of the PLO after Arafat's death in November 2004, agreed to begin intensive negotiations with Olmert. While Abbas expressed his unhappiness with continued Israeli construction in East Jerusalem and the settlement blocs, he did not make cancelation of these projects a precondition for talks. In fact, Olmert said, "It was clear from day one to Abbas... that construction would continue in population concentrations -- the areas mentioned in Bush's 2004 letter.... Beitar Illit will be built, Gush Etzion will be built; there will be construction in Pisgat Zeev and in the Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem... areas [that] will remain under Israeli control in any future settlement."

These negotiations produced significant results: on Sept. 16, 2008, Olmert offered Abbas 93 percent of the West Bank, partition of Jerusalem, and a land swap. Abbas's deputy Saeb Erekat boasted to a Jordanian newspaper that he and Abbas had achieved considerable progress with the Olmert government between the November 2007 Annapolis talks and the end of 2008 in as many as 288 negotiation sessions by 12 committees -- all while Israeli construction continued.

The record is clear and consistent: The United States has never liked Israeli construction in East Jerusalem, and frequently stated that it complicated the peace process. But until Obama, no U.S. president had made its cancelation a precondition for negotiations, and until Obama, Palestinian leaders including Abbas did not make it a precondition either. For 19 years -- from the Madrid conference of October 1991 through the Olmert/Abbas negotiations that ended in 2008, negotiations moved forward while Jerusalem construction continued. Madrid, Oslo I, Oslo II, the Hebron Protocol, the Wye River Memorandum, Camp David, Taba, the disengagement from Gaza, and the Olmert offer to Abbas -- all these events over the course of two decades were made possible by a continuing agreement to disagree about Israeli construction of Jewish homes in Jewish neighborhoods outside the pre-1967 line in East Jerusalem.

Today, for the first time in 19 years, we have an aministration unable to produce Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Abbas is following Obama's lead in demanding an unprecedented precondition that Israel cannot satisfy. This is the same Abbas who negotiated with seven previous Israeli prime ministers -- Shamir, Rabin, Peres, Netanyahu (in his first term), Barak, Sharon, and Olmert, without the precondition that he now demands of Netanyahu. We have a crisis. Netanyahu is doing something that every past Israeli prime minister of the left and right has done, but Obama is doing something that past American leaders considered unwise. It is the U.S. behavior that has changed.

At this moment, Obama's decision to confront Netanyahu about construction in Jerusalem wins wide praise. Whether Obama's policy will still look good in six months, when people realize he has mired the negotiations in quicksand, remains to be seen.

Obama would do better to take the advice of his own Mideast envoy, George Mitchell, who wisely told PBS host Charlie Rose, "For the Israelis, what they're building in is in part of Israel. Now, the others don't see it that way. So you have these widely divergent perspectives on the subject. Our view is, let's get into negotiations, let's deal with the issues and come up with a solution to all of them including Jerusalem.... The Israelis are not going to stop settlements in or construction in East Jerusalem.... There are disputed legal issues.... And we could spend the next 14 years arguing over disputed legal issues or we can try to get a negotiation to resolve them in a manner that meets the aspirations of both societies."

Steven J. Rosen served for 23 years as foreign-policy director of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and was a defendant in the recently dismissed AIPAC case. He is now director of the Washington Project at the Middle East Forum.

See the original article in Foreign Policy
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Palestinian Arabs Riot In Jerusalem

by David Bedein

Jerusalem - Throughout the past week, Palestinians used the loudspeaker system in Jerusalem mosques to call on Arab residents of Jerusalem to come en masse to Al-Aksa Mosque in order to protect it from “invading settlers.”

Sheikh Yousef Kardawi, considered to be one of the most important religious figures in the Muslim world, held a large press conference in Cairo. Sheikh Kardawi called on the masses to hold a “day of rage and a day of struggle for Al-Aksa so as to prevent the Jews from seizing control of the mosques.”

The rumor that Israel was going to expel Arabs from the Al-Aksa mosque spread like wildfire.

Jihad Abu Zaned, a resident of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency refugee camp of Shuafat, serves as a memberof the Palestinian Legislative Council on behalf of Fatah. She said: “It’s all only because of el-Aksa. Here, nobody asks or cares about Abu Mazen or Goldstone. El-Aksa is the focal point, just as it was in the previous Intifada. I think that the riots in Jerusalem are going to begin to spread to the West Bank cities.”

The rioting in the capital continued to worsen yesterday against the backdrop of the Palestinian Authority’s statement calling “to prevent Israel from Judaizing Jerusalem.”

The Palestinian Authority cabinet in Ramallah - often described as "moderate" - joined in the calls “to clash with Israel and with its plans, the purpose of which is to thwart every Palestinian effort to establish an independent state.” The Palestinian Authority charged that the background to the rioting was “Jews’ attempts to seize control of the Temple Mount.”

A high-ranking official in Palestinian Authority leader Abbas’s office said that the reason the strongly-worded statement was issued was the Palestinian Authority’s struggle against Hamas, which has been perceived for the time being as being behind the current wave of riots. “The Arab media have been covering the events on the Temple Mount extensively, and this issue has elicited a lot of interest in the Arab world,” said a high-ranking Israeli security official.

Jerusalem District Police Commander Aharon Franko accused Palestinian Arabs of being "ingrates.” “The police allowed numerous Muslim worshippers who arrived at the Temple Mount to hold Ramadan prayers, and everything was done with impeccable order. Now, during the Jewish holidays of [the Hebrew month of] Tishrei, they’re rioting.”

On Tuesday, at around 3:30 in the afternoon, a military police soldier was stabbed in the neck at the Shuafat roadblock. The soldier boarded a bus to conduct a routine security inspection among the passengers who were coming in from the nearby refugee camp. One of the passengers, a 16-year-old boy from the village Anata, stood up in his seat and stabbed the soldier in the neck. The assailant was arrested and was taken in for questioning. Magen David Adom medics treated the soldier and evacuated him in light to moderate condition to Hadassah Hospital Ein Kerem. A witness at the scene, Danny Rotenberg of Magen David Adom Jerusalem said: “The paramedics stabilized the knife so that it shouldn’t move and damage additional blood vessels. The soldier, who was terribly frightened, was evacuated carefully.”

Undercover Agents Reveal: Riots Were Not Spontaneous

Riots in Jerusalem in recent days brought Israeli undercover troops back into action, and they were able to infiltrate the ranks of those planning the riots and to expose their plans. Undercover Border Police in Jerusalem successfully arrested dozens of the most senior rioters in the Ras el-Amud neighborhood near the Mount of Olives in Jerusalem. Unit combatants, along with another Border Police unit, established as a part of the lessons learned from the October 2000 riots, were able to penetrate the leadership of the rioters and bring about their arrest.

The undercover police in Jerusalem are comprised of experienced and well trained combat troops who are proficient in Arabic. Their job is to assimilate, disguised among the rioters - to tackle the prime inciters and arrest them, sometimes risking their lives.

These units operated in the alleys of Jerusalem’s Old City. They were sent to gather intelligence and were able to document the mounds of rocks prepared by the rioters in advance inside the Al-Aksa Mosque, in several sites on the Temple Mount compound as well as in a few other locations in the Old City with the intent to attack police forces and worshippers at the Western Wall.

“The photos that we took and (what they) revealed left no room for doubt - this is an organized activity being planned by Muslim extremists, led by people of the northern faction of the Islamic Movement,” said a police source, adding that “Luckily, most of the Arab streets in Jerusalem were not swept by the provocations of these inciters.”

PA Seizing Control Of Jerusalem

The General Security Service, Israel’s national security agency, has been warning for a number of months about an expedited process in which the Palestinian Authority has taken control over Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem.

At issue is their covert use of security forces in Jerusalem. One high-ranking Israeli security official said that the Palestinian Authority’s influence over the Palestinian street in Jerusalem was now more extensive than it was back in the Orient House’s heyday. Israel closed the Palestinian headquarters at the Orient House in August 2001.

A GSS position paper that was submitted to the top Israeli political leadership cited a deepening penetration of the Palestinian Authority into East Jerusalem, resulting in disquiet on the Palestinian street that could ultimately manifest itself in extensive rioting - as has occurred at present.

The most salient sign of the Palestinian Authority’s intervention in Jerusalem is the appointment of Prime Minister Salam Fayyad as the Palestinian minister for Jerusalem affairs after he published his plan to establish an independent Palestinian state within two years.

The components of that plan included firm Palestinian control over Jerusalem, all of Jerusalem.

Ever since assuming ministerial responsibility for Jerusalem, Fayyad has channeled millions of dollars out of the Palestinian budget - donation funds-to bolster the Palestinian Authority’s economic infrastructure in Jerusalem. The money has been invested mainly in real estate-buying up property from Palestinian families that wanted to sell and construction in open areas.

Israeli security officials note that in addition to the influx of funds, the Palestinian Authority has also sent in a variety of security forces to operate in Jerusalem. It is now the case that security is enforced in large swathes of Jerusalem by Palestinian Authority forces.

Sheikh Arrested, Released And Expelled

Sheikh Raed Salah, leader of the northern branch of the Islamic Movement in Israel, was arrested and ordered to stay away from Jerusalem for thirty days. Salah was arrested for alleged incitement and sedition on the basis of the sharp statements about the Temple Mount in recent days.

Sheik Salah was arrested after meetings between the police chief, the state attorney and the commander of the Jerusalem District Police.

Franco said that “In recent weeks and months, we kept track of the suspect’s statements, some of which constituted incitement and insulted Israeli institutions of authority. As far as we’re concerned, he’s suspected of incitement, sedition and insulting state officials, which is against the law. These are based on statements that he made during sermons that he delivered during Friday prayers in mosques in Umm el-Fahm, Wadi Ara and in mosques in Jerusalem. There were also public statements by Sheikh Salah, such as the ones that were documented in the media, that contained enough to commit all three of the crimes for which he was arrested.”

The same officer added, “From the moment we realized that crimes had been committed, we decided to arrest him, even if this was done before the Friday on which, according to the warnings, there were supposed to be severe confrontations between extremists in the Arab sector and police officers in Jerusalem on the Temple Mount.”

September Stats: An Increase In Violence

Is Palestinian terrorism gaining momentum? According to GSS statistics, approximately 95 terror attacks were carried out in the territories, as compared with 53 in August.

The GSS uses the term “terror attack” to describe any incident in which there is harm to people or to property, from stone-throwing to fire-bombing to rocket fire.

According to the report, the increase in terror attacks in the Gaza Strip was particularly prominent, with 45 terror attacks in September as compared with 19 in August. A sharp increase in rocket fire was also noted: during September, particularly in the second half of the month, 17 rockets were fired at Israel, as compared with two rockets in August.

In Judea and Samaria, 38 terror attacks were perpetrated: 12 in the Jerusalem sector, as compared with 32 in the West Bank, and two in Jerusalem during the month of August. Most of the terror attacks - 45 out of 50-consisted in the throwing of firebombs. There were also two shooting attacks, one of them in Jerusalem, and three incidents of stone-throwing or the throwing of other hard objects.

A decrease was actually noted in the number of wounded people. In September, two Israelis were wounded by terrorist activity, as compared with four in August.