by David Bedein
A report to the United States Congress warns that Egypt’s military could stage a coup to prevent the transition of power by President Hosni Mubarak to his 46-year-old son, Gamal.
The Congressional Research Service has found the likelihood of Gamal becoming Egypt’s
next president has alarmed the military as well as the Islamic-led
opposition.
“If such a situation were to occur, many observers wonder whether the
military and security establishment would remain in their barracks or
re-enter politics to establish order,” the report, titled “Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations,” said.
The report was released as Egypt’s ruling National Democratic Party
(NDP), intensified efforts to prepare Gamal for succession. Senior officials,
including Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, have already called for Gamal to be
groomed as Egypt’s next president.
The 81-year-old Mubarak, president since 1981 and said to be in declining health, has not ruled out a re-election bid in 2011. The report,
however, said Gamal, the No. 2 figure in the NDP, could emerge as the next
candidate for presidency, while retaining his rival, Maj. Gen. Omar Suleiman, as intelligence chief.
Mr. Suleiman has been raised as a candidate to succeed Mr. Mubarak. Arab League
secretary-general Amr Moussa was also said to be considering running for
president.
“However, at age 73, it is unlikely that Mr. Suleiman, should he become
president, would rule for a long period of time,” the report said.
“Furthermore, as head of Egypt’s General Intelligence Service, Mr. Suleiman
would need to retire from military service since active-duty military
officers are not allowed membership in political parties. Mr. Suleiman is
currently engaged in a number of sensitive diplomatic operations and is one of Mr. Mubarak’s closest confidants, making his departure from
military service unlikely.”
Another scenario was that of a military takeover to prevent a Gamal
presidency.
The Congressional Research Service’s report, authored by Jeremy Sharp and dated Sept. 2, said the
elder Mubarak has banned military officers from NDP’s Supreme Council.
“An Egyptian military officer carries out a soft coup, in which constitutional proceedings are set aside and civilian elites quietly
acquiesce to the military’s re-assertion of power,” the report said.
Some U.S. analysts have raised the scenario of a military coup. Michele Dunne, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has discussed the prospect of the General Staff helping to install a military officer as president.
Mr. Sharp said that many experts have deemed Egypt’s political system stable and discount a coup. The report also said the student clashes with the Iranian
regime in wake of a controversial presidential election in June could
signal a similar scenario in Egypt.
“Some analysts fear that a less-than-smooth transition of power could
open the door for the Muslim Brotherhood to mobilize its supporters and
demand an Islamist government,” the report said.
View the original article in the Philadelphia Bulletin
Showing posts with label Gamal Mubarak. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gamal Mubarak. Show all posts
Friday, November 6, 2009
Sunday, August 23, 2009
The Philadelphia Bulletin: Egyptian President Mubarak Looks Ill During Visit
by David Bedein
Jerusalem - Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak was received in a state visit in Washington last week. However, those who observed the 82-year-old Egyptian President on his first visit to the United States since 2004, said that he appears to be on his last legs.
Mr. Mubarak has been struggling in his meetings in Washington. A participant in one meeting said Mr. Mubarak appeared to be in physical pain and unable to understand much of what was being said to him.
"He looks like a zombie," the participant said.
In 2009, he underwent a battery of medical tests in Paris that identified heart illness, blood ailments and a serious back problem. Moreover, the president was said to have sunk into a depression when his favorite grandson died suddenly in May 2009.
"The doctors told him to take a long vacation abroad, but he felt he could not be outside Egypt for so long," a Western diplomatic source said. For his part, Mr. Mubarak reassured the Obama administration that he would remain in office in the years to come. He did not rule out running for another term of office in 2011.
On Aug. 19, Mr. Mubarak met President Barack Obama for a review of bilateral relations and Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts. An official said Obama urged Mr. Mubarak to recruit Arab support for a peace agreement with Israel that would lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
"We are moving in the right direction," Mr. Mubarak said after the meeting. "The Arab states are ready to help if the Israelis and the Palestinians returned to peace talks."
Over the last few weeks, the administration has approved a series of Egyptian weapons requests and deliveries, including that of military helicopters and anti-ship missiles. The White House was also expected to approve an Egyptian request for the advanced F-16 Block 52+ multi-role fighters later in 2009.
"Relations between us and the United States are very good relations and strategic relations," Mr. Mubarak said. "And despite some of the hoops that we had with previous administrations, this did not change the nature of our bilateral relations."
During his visit, however, Mr. Mubarak appeared to concentrate on promoting his son and heir-apparent, Gamal, an economist and regarded as the No. 2 figure in Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party.
View this story in the Philadelphia Bulletin
View this story at Israel Behind the News
Jerusalem - Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak was received in a state visit in Washington last week. However, those who observed the 82-year-old Egyptian President on his first visit to the United States since 2004, said that he appears to be on his last legs.
Mr. Mubarak has been struggling in his meetings in Washington. A participant in one meeting said Mr. Mubarak appeared to be in physical pain and unable to understand much of what was being said to him.
"He looks like a zombie," the participant said.
In 2009, he underwent a battery of medical tests in Paris that identified heart illness, blood ailments and a serious back problem. Moreover, the president was said to have sunk into a depression when his favorite grandson died suddenly in May 2009.
"The doctors told him to take a long vacation abroad, but he felt he could not be outside Egypt for so long," a Western diplomatic source said. For his part, Mr. Mubarak reassured the Obama administration that he would remain in office in the years to come. He did not rule out running for another term of office in 2011.
On Aug. 19, Mr. Mubarak met President Barack Obama for a review of bilateral relations and Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts. An official said Obama urged Mr. Mubarak to recruit Arab support for a peace agreement with Israel that would lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
"We are moving in the right direction," Mr. Mubarak said after the meeting. "The Arab states are ready to help if the Israelis and the Palestinians returned to peace talks."
Over the last few weeks, the administration has approved a series of Egyptian weapons requests and deliveries, including that of military helicopters and anti-ship missiles. The White House was also expected to approve an Egyptian request for the advanced F-16 Block 52+ multi-role fighters later in 2009.
"Relations between us and the United States are very good relations and strategic relations," Mr. Mubarak said. "And despite some of the hoops that we had with previous administrations, this did not change the nature of our bilateral relations."
During his visit, however, Mr. Mubarak appeared to concentrate on promoting his son and heir-apparent, Gamal, an economist and regarded as the No. 2 figure in Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party.
View this story in the Philadelphia Bulletin
View this story at Israel Behind the News
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