Incisive Commentary from Jerusalem

by Arlene Kushner

Posting: March 24, 2008

"Fatah and Hamas"

Well, here we are in the midst of an ever-changing scenario that has yet to play itself out.

Officially, neither the US nor Israel has comment on the agreement signed by Fatah and Hamas yesterday in Yemen that commits them to working out their differences. I determined as much via calls to the US Embassy and US Consulate in Jerusalem, and to spokespersons for the prime minister and ministry of foreign affairs.

But unofficially, it's another story.

Most nauseating (and I use the word advisedly) was the reaction of Defense Minister Barak, as reported by Abu Toameh and others in the Post. Barak is said to be considering some "good will gestures" to show the PA that if they get too close to Hamas they risk "losing everything."

What the Post article said was that:

"[Israeli government] officials, who were skeptical that a declaration agreed upon in Yemen by Fatah and Hamas would actually bear any fruit, said that by agreeing to re-start a dialogue with Hamas, PA President Mahmoud Abbas might be signaling to Israel that if it didn't start acting to shore up his position, he had 'other options.'"

If we didn't "start acting to shore up his position"??? Does this mean we are expected to cave on matters that impinge on Israeli security, in order to make Abbas look good, out of fear of what he might do if we fail to respond?

There is a word for what Barak is contemplating: appeasement. The more the PA officials act perversely, the more we think we must provide for them. In such a scenario, the PA is calling the shots and we make ourselves fools. There is no notion of requiring demonstrable good faith of the PA before restrictions are relaxed.

All of this, you understand, is being done with an eye towards Rice's arrival here next week. For it's not only the PA that our government rushes to appease, but also (and perhaps even more so) the US government.

Barak is considering such things as a VIP lane at checkpoints and exempting businessmen who have received security clearances from getting checked at these points. A risky business in my opinion. Suffice it to say that there have been several occasions on which persons who have been deemed trustworthy turned out to be accomplices to terror activity.

In fairness to Barak, he did say it's too soon to consider actually taking down checkpoints.

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Olmert for his part, is reported to have told Cheney that "the understandings between Hamas and Fatah are not the kind that requires any Israeli response." We will continue to negotiate with the PA, he said, but implementation of any agreement will depend on its ability to fight terror. Also perhaps words designed to satisfy the Americans.

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With all of this, at a different level, the message has also been passed to Abbas that if he returns to a unity government, negotiations are over.

An Israeli official, speaking without authorization and thus anonymously, said, "The Fatah leadership has to make a choice. They can have a peace process and dialogue with Israel or a coalition with Hamas. But it's clear that you can't have them both."

Unofficial messages from the US have been similar.

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And will there be a new Palestinian unity government?

Well. according to PA chief negotiator Ahmed Qurei, the agreement was signed as the result of a mix-up. He says that Azzam al-Ahmed, who headed the PA negotiating team in Yemen tried to call Abbas to get a final OK before signing, but Abbas was busy meeting with Cheney, so he went ahead and signed. A foolish and simplistic interpretation that perhaps signals a deeper disagreement or quandry.

Al Jazeera reports that some Abbas advisors are claiming that al-Ahmed kept Abbas in the dark regarding the details of what he signed, but al-Ahmed insists that he didn't exceed his brief and had coordinated with Abbas's office before signing.

So what is this about? We might say that Abbas is getting cold feet. But I would suggest another interpretation: that he's playing both ends against the middle, preparing to get into bed with Hamas while he acts as if this is not his intention at all.

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There is considerable indication that this agreement, while it is based on specific items, simply commits the parties to further talk.

According to a PA statement, "Resumption of dialogue in the future must be to implement the Yemeni initiative in all its items and not to deal with the initiative as a framework for dialogue, because this will not yield an outcome." "The initiative in all its items" includes return to the situation in Gaza before the Hamas takeover.

But then, the PA is not ready to change its situation in Judea and Samaria.

While Hamas's position is that the agreement simply represents a guideline for talks, not pre-conditions at all.

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Let me here recommend a new piece by Barry Rubin, "Palestinian Politics: Onward and Downward." It provides a solid dose of much-needed realism.

Says Rubin, Palestinian politics continues to reject moderation. (Emphasis added)

"Three factors fuel this trend.

"First, Fatah and the PA continue to be corrupt, incompetent and incapable of self-reform.

"Second, given the cult of violence and total victory dominating Palestinian political culture, Hamas is inevitably seen as heroic because it fights and rejects compromise...

"Compromise is treason; moderation is cowardice. This is the daily fare of Palestinian ideology and politics, purveyed by leaders, clerics, media and schools...

"Third, due to its own weakness and the strong political culture it never challenges, the current leadership cannot make peace. It knows, contrary to Western claims, that negotiating a political solution would destroy it, and acts accordingly...

"Even so, Fatah is undergoing a radicalization process which may not displace Abbas, but will install his successor. Public opinion is also more extreme, with support for terrorism zooming upward. Fatah both heeds and feeds the trend...

"We are now seeing the birth of a new Fatah all right, but not the one heralded by such people as former British prime minister Tony Blair or Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. It is rather an even more extremist version, coming from those who wield guns, not pens, namely the Aksa Brigades. Contrary to much reportage, this is not an 'offshoot' but an essential part of Fatah...

"The Brigades demand Fayyad's firing and replacement by 'a new government that would not abandon the armed struggle.' Like others in the Fatah leadership, its strategy is not to fight but ally with Hamas. Despite Hamas's bloody expulsion of Fatah from Gaza, killing Israelis wipes out all sins in Palestinian politics...

"The main thing keeping Fayyad in office is not honesty or moderation, but the fact that removing him would kiss good-bye to almost $7 billion in Western aid...

"One reason why many Westerners misunderstand the conflict and countries adopt ridiculously irrelevant policies is ignorance of how extremism is attractive in its own right. After all, Westerners reason, if people are all alike and universally pragmatic, Palestinians must want to end the conflict and get an independent state through negotiation and compromise. Why go on suffering? No 'rational' person would act that way.

"Therefore, many in the West reach one of two conclusions:

"1. Palestinian leaders want to act rationally but cannot make peace and achieve a better life for their people because Israel will not let them. This is the anti-Israel stance.

"2. They are eager to do so, and if Europe and America only put in lots of effort and money peace can be quickly achieved. This is the 'evenhanded' position, which always ends up demanding Israeli concessions in hopes of enabling Palestinian moderation.

"These are articles of unshakable faith, impermeable to evidence or experience. Whenever Palestinian leaders reject peace it must be because they were not offered enough... ”

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1205420760146&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

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Posting: March 23, 2008

"Gratitude"

Gratitude first on a national level. We seem to have gotten through Purim without a major terror attack, which is no small thing. (Purim is was over Friday night every where but the walled cities of Jerusalem and Sefat, which celebrated Sushan Purim today.)

There was a time when Purim was a prime choice of terrorists for launching their evil plans upon us. And always during Purim the country is on high alert.

And then, I am grateful beyond words for the simcha (joy) I experienced this Purim with my kids and 10 grandchildren. Such moments of pure happiness are rare in life and must be savored and appreciated.

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Vice President Cheney is here.

While I remain mindful of the fact that he does represent the Bush administration and Bush policy, the truth is that, knowing his background with regard to Israel, I trust him in a way I would never trust Rice.

Last night Cheney said: "America's commitment to Israel's security is enduring and unshakeable, as is our commitment to Israel's right to defend itself always against terrorism rocket attacks and other threats from forces dedicated to Israel's destruction... The US will never pressure Israel to take steps that threaten his security."

What I say about this is that I'm reasonably confident that if it were up to him, there would be no pressure on us that threatens our security. Haval (a pity) that it's not solely up to him.

Then... sigh... he did go on to talk about the "peace process." Yes, he said that peace "requires painful concessions." (That again -- it seems to be considered de rigeur. But he said it in Ramallah after meeting with Abbas.) And that, citing the president, a Palestinian state is "long overdue." But even so, he also went on record as saying that while "we continue to work for peace, we must not, and shall not, ignore the darkening of shadows of the situation in Gaza, in Lebanon, in Syria and in Iran, and the forces there that are working to derail the hopes of the world."

While he is dealing with the "peace process" during his brief visit, my impression is that the priority in Cheney's discussions with Israeli officials is Iran. He met with Olmert last night, this morning met with Peres -- who warned that if the Golan were returned to Syria it would end up in Iran's hands -- and Netanyahu -- who warned that withdrawal from any part of Jerusalem would make room for Iran to move in. Then on to Ramallah for meetings, and returning to meet one more time with Olmert.

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This is a time when definitive reporting is difficult because so much is unresolved and rumors fly so fast. Let us look here at major issues on the table:

The Fatah-Hamas meetings in Yemen. Fatah wants Gaza returned to its control. Hamas wants Haniyeh restored to the position of prime minister of the PA (moving out Fayyad, who was appointed by Abbas in place of Haniyeh after the Hamas takeover in Gaza). From my perspective it seems that if they are interested in the status quo ante in one respect they have to accept the whole package -- when Fatah controlled Gaza, Haniyeh was PM -- and yet each party seeks only what is perceived as advantageous to its own strength.

So, what we've heard in the last few days is that they were close to an agreement, and then that they'd run into stumbling blocks. That Fatah almost walked out. That Hamas is balking.

Now a report has come from Yemen that they've signed an agreement, at a ceremony in San'a, the capital, at which Yemeni president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, was present. The agreement, which is being referred to as the "San'a Declaration," says that they "accept the Yemeni initiative as a framework for resuming dialogue" that will enable them to "to return the Palestinian situation to what it was before the Gaza incidents."

This does not mean that the issues have been resolved, but rather that they intend to try to resolve them. Dialogue is supposed to resume in April in San'a, and will be based on the Yemeni initiative, which includes a unity government and merged "national" security forces.

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The implications of this are huge.

There is the possibility that Rice and members of the EU will twist themselves into pretzels trying to find a way to continue the peace process even though Hamas doesn't recognize Israel. There was a time when I would have thought this ridiculous, but so much has transpired that is incredible, I am no longer certain.

Can anyone imagine Rice getting up forthrightly and saying, "We misjudged. Abbas is not the man who thought he was and he certainly does not merit continued support from the US. Any notion of promoting a two-state solution now is not viable." Nah...

But this is not likely to play well with Congress, which was sold a bill of goods about Abbas needing US largesse to serve as a bulwark against Hamas radicalism.

As I see it, in any event, if there is an agreement Hamas will come out the victor, given more credibility and the latitude to call the shots to a large degree. Fatah is weaker than it was when the first unity government was established, and Hamas was dominant then.

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With all this, however, a new state of affairs may emerge that provides Israel with the latitude to assume a different, far more realistic posture. From the beginning Israel stated unequivocally that there would be no negotiations if Abbas dealt with Hamas.

An unnamed Israeli official has reported that a message has been sent to Abbas informing him that final status negotiations would stop if a unity government was to be formed. Israel didn't say that as he's talking with Hamas that is itself enough justification for halting negotiations. This would only be the case if there was a unity government, which hasn't yet been established by this agreement.

As I'm fond of saying, we will have to watch this closely.

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Right now there is also the whole issue of the efforts by Egypt to negotiate a truce between Hamas and Israel.

From the Israeli side comes indication that this is highly unlikely, in part because weapons smuggling is continuing. But also -- I must believe -- because Hamas is seeking a "comprehensive" truce that includes Judea and Samaria, and just at a time when Hamas is gaining strength there.

Certainly top IDF officials are opposed to a truce, some fearing that Hamas would see this as a "reward." Their preference is for additional operations such as the one the IDF did two weeks ago.

But from Hamas and Islamic Jihad sources come reports of such a truce being close, with Egypt having delivered word of this on behalf of Israel. What is being said is that Israel will offer a one year truce if Hamas stops firing rockets. But this doesn't meet Israel's stipulations. Meanwhile, Al Hayat reported today that the Egyptians said that while Israel preferred a truce only in Gaza, they were willing to consider a "comprehensive" deal. I don't believe everything I read, but I remain cautiously skeptical.

What amused me today was this: Abu Toameh reports that Egypt summoned Hamas and Islamic Jihad to an urgent meeting last night and "warned" them to stop smuggling weapons. The thrust of this message is that a deal will be possible if they stop. But we are not so foolish. Israel has stipulated, at a minimum, that Egypt had to seal the border with Gaza so there could be no smuggling. A "warning" does not suffice.

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Yet another -- related -- issue must be mentioned here: That is the question of who supervises crossings into Gaza. Hamas monitoring, which is a joke, is not acceptable to Israel. But neither is Fatah monitoring, as this would lead to Hamas control of the situation. Even when Fatah was stronger, and in control of Gaza, it allowed Hamas to smuggle weapons. And now?

Egypt is said to be working out all sorts of deals on this issue.

Of course, ultimately a unity government may have to be factored into this equation.

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Hezbollah claims to have "100% proof" that Israel is responsible for the murder of Mughniyeh. The traditional 40 day mourning period has just ended and Israel intends to maintain high alert at all international Israeli installations such a embassies and consulates, as well as at the border with Lebanon.

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A recent Palestinian poll shows that 84% of the people approved the massacre at Mercaz Harav, and 64% support rocket attacks.

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Posting: March 20, 2008

"Purim"

Purim begins tonight. A holiday of frivolity and fun -- we are bidden to enjoy! -- it carries messages that are so relevant for us today: The threat of extinction of the Jewish people overcome and enemies destroyed.

It says in the Megillah, which is read tonight and tomorrow, that after the Jews were saved there was light and rejoicing. They went from mourning to gladness. So may it be for us.

A Purim Sameach to those celebrating, and a good Easter to my Christian friends.

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Posting: March 19, 2008 "Israeli Arabs, Germans, and More"

I wrote recently about the fact that Arabs living inside of Israel are in some instances sympathetic to our enemies and in a smaller number of instances actively supportive. The issue arose with particular potency after the massacre at Yeshivat Mercaz Harav. In several respects I feel it is important to return to this issue for further exploration.

There were readers (a few) who expressed concern that Israel not come down too hard on those living here who are sympathetic to Hamas; they focused on rights that adhere in a democracy, which must be protected. Israel should not act -- or be seen to act -- in ways that are repressive. I would like to address that.

Israel, if anything, bends over backwards to be tolerant of those expressing anti-Israel sentiment. In my opinion (even as an American born and bred, coming out of liberal traditions), I believe this has been too much the case. It's maddening when Arab MKs express support for those wishing to attack us.

And I hasten to assure those who are concerned about these issues that there is no intention within the government to take wholesale repressive actions against the Arab population.

However, we are dealing with situations that are literally existential, and it is time to examine seriously, and without concern for what is politically correct, what potential dangers lurk within the Arab Israeli population, and what measures might be required to protect the nation.

One reader referred to the time of the Vietnam war, and the fact that those protesting it -- including by burning American flags -- were permitted their freedoms. My response was that, while those protestors could -- and in fact did -- affect the outcome of the war, there was no possibility of their bringing about the destruction of the US. Here the risks are far more immediate.

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It remains important, as we look at this issue, to differentiate between various Arab populations -- something I did not do sufficiently before. Caroline Glick addressed this recently.

There are, for example, the Druze, who are loyal Israeli citizens who universally serve in the IDF, and the Bedouin, who are renowned as army trackers. There are Christian Arabs who flourish here in Israel and have no history of violence. And non-Arab Muslims, such as Circassians, who are integrated into Israeli society.

And then there is the difference between those living here as full citizens from the time of the War of Independence, as versus those in Jerusalem given residency status following our acquisition of eastern Jerusalem in 1967 and thereafter. (There is talk now about limiting the right of those resident in Jerusalem to move freely about the country.)

Glick is of the opinion that the problem lies with the leaders of the Arab community. The MKs, for certain. And the Higher Monitoring Committee, which I mentioned. There is as well the Islamic Movement in Israel, which is inciteful and has been involved in violent incidents. They are making inroads even in the Bedouin community.

The project to encourage Muslims Arabs who do not serve in the Israeli army to instead do national service provides a key example of how the Arab leadership intimidates. They have warned that anyone who participates in this project -- which makes them Israeli and "robs" them of their Palestinian identity -- will be ostracized by the community. Thus are young people who might be sincerely interested in participating discouraged.

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And what of the general Arab Muslim population? As I indicated before, many are surely innocent of malign intentions towards the State, and want only to exist peacefully. But the leadership has turned many heads and made it a mark of disloyalty to the Palestinian people to be too much immersed in Israeli society. This is a problem in particular regarding the Arabs in eastern Jerusalem.

There has been a good deal of information coming out about the very quiet but strong sympathy for Hamas and for the terrorist Ala'a Abu Dheim in his neighborhood of Jebl Mukaber. No one can deny the impact of this situation on the Jewish population of Jerusalem.

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After the massacre, the family of Abu Dheim set up a mourning tent. While they were required to remove the banners for Hamas and Hezbollah, the tent itself was permitted to stand. There were even comments here from Israeli officials -- that did not sit well in many quarters -- that the family had a right to mourn.

There was an official attempt made to take down the family's house but that never happened because of legal considerations that blocked this action.

So much for concerns about the Arabs not being accorded their rights.

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In fact, there was a considerable response in just the opposite direction: concern that this family of a terrorist was being accorded all together too much consideration.

In this spirit, several hundred right wing activists, on Sunday, gathered in Talpiot, adjacent to the Jebl Mukaber neighborhood, with the declared intention of first protesting and then moving into the Arab neighborhood to take down the house of the terrorist's family. There was, it should be noted, no call whatsoever for violence against persons.

A large cadre of police met them and for the most part blocked them. But some young people made it down the hill to the Arab area, and, inevitably, there was stone-throwing (apparently from both sides) before arrests were made.

For the record, while I have full sympathy with their position, I regretted this action, which I see as counterproductive to the goals of expressing Jewish rights. Such confrontations, even when reasonably mild, fuel false accusations of crazy right wing intentions to kill Arabs.

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As to false accusations: After the massacre, there were rumors that rabbis from the yeshiva had sanctioned attacks on Arabs as retribution. In particular, Sheikh Raed Salah, the head of the Islamic Movement's northern branch, told supporters that he had been warned of plans to assassinate him.

The Shin Bet, however, after investigation, said these claims were baseless.

Salah is a trouble-maker, big-time, and this seems clearly a case of incitement.

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Meanwhile a rabbi from the Ateret Kohanim Yeshiva in the Old City was stabbed in the neck by an Arab.

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A house that was destroyed was that of terrorist Muhammad Shehadeh, taken out by Israel in Bethlehem last week. And guess who has announced intentions to rebuild it? The Palestinian Authority.

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German Chancellor Angela Merkel addressed the Knesset yesterday, in spite of being boycotted by four MKs who objected to her speaking in German. Her words were moving as she spoke about German hearts filled with shame because of the Holocaust and the special German responsibility to work for Israel's security, which she tied to issues of Iranian threats. A nuclear Iran would be disastrous, she declared.

But all is not sweetness and light here. German trades significantly with Iran and appeases radical Muslims. What is more, from exceedingly well informed sources I've learned of the growing and very worrisome anti-Semitism in Germany.

See Caroline Glick on Germany as an appeaser, and Israel as an appeaser of Germany, helping to play the game:
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage=2&cid=1205420711513&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

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I've written about the meddling into our security situation of US military envoys and of Defense Minister Barak's deliberate and laudable snubbing of a meeting with American generals because of his pique with them.

Now JINSA has put out a report (# 756) applauding Barak, as well, and taking a hard look at the way in which the US is interfering in Israel's security issues:

"The American generals appear to have three complaints - Israel is not sharing enough intelligence with the Palestinian Security Services; IDF security operations in the West Bank are driving terrorists into the Palestinian-controlled areas, accounting for the inability of the Palestinian Authority to maintain order; and Israel refuses to institute new security procedures (removing checkpoints) as 'peace negotiations move forward.'

"This is a blatant American attempt to a) interfere with the Israeli government’s obligation to secure the people of Israel, and; b) blame Israel for the increasing anarchy in the West Bank. We strongly believe it is the result of demands by the State Department for the military envoys to make 'progress' toward the independent Palestinian State to which the administration is committed - regardless of circumstances on the ground.

"The American military professionals appear frustrated by their inability to create any kind of reliable security force among the Palestinians. That they can’t is understandable, but that isn’t Israel’s problem. Israel has to deal with a well-understood threat to its people and cannot subcontract out the work to semi-reformed terrorists in Fatah."

http://www.jinsa.org/articles/articles.html/function/view/categoryid/650/documentid/4034/history/3,2359,650,4034

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Posting: March 18, 2008

"Never Ending"

The things to be concerned about, that is.

This morning's Jerusalem Post carried an exclusive by Khaled Abu Toameh regarding a new PA "plan" -- drawn up by high-ranking Fatah member and PA Deputy Minister for Prisoner Affairs Ziad Abu Ein -- to implement the "right of return" for Israel's 60th celebrations.

The plan -- called the "Initiative of Return and Coexistence" -- proposes that the two-state negotiations be abandoned in favor of "all living together."

It calls for Palestinian refugees everywhere to converge on Israel by land, sea and air, on May 14, carrying UN flags and their UNRWA ID cards (which theoretically certify them as refugees). They are supposed to bring their suitcases, and tents so that they can settle down in the towns and villages they (actually their parents and grandparents) came from sixty years ago -- never mind that these places no longer exist.

Neighboring Arab states are supposed to open their borders so the "refugees" can get out and make their way to Israel, and Arab states are asked to contribute to costs. The UN secretary-general and other world leaders are asked to support this effort, which calls upon the refugees to abandon terrorism and "live in peace" with their Israeli neighbors (yea, sure).

And Ramallah is said to be in favor.

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You read this, and you said, "Oi vey!" or some equivalent thereof. A most worrisome scenario, one would think.

When I checked with representatives of the prime minister's office and the Foreign Ministry today, I encountered a very relaxed attitude. Who knows if this is even true, they responded.

My most knowledgeable source regarding events within the PA advised me that the plan has indeed been proposed but that Fatah is "too tired," they haven't the energy to pull off anything like this. However, said my source, if Iran, perhaps, should decide to make this happen, and energize it, it might be different. I will add that there might also be other outside energizing forces.

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So? Does this get taken seriously? As to actually having the hordes of refugees attempt entry into the country, I am assuming that intelligence would secure information of preparations in advance, and would respond appropriately. It wouldn't be pretty, but we wouldn't have millions of purported refugees suddenly within our borders.

But there's another factor to be considered, and another motivation for what they are talking about: They are out to embarrass us, and make us uncomfortable, and bring us down a few more notches in public opinion, by threatening this. The poor refugees. After all these years, still denied the right to go "home." They are masters at this.

We are, sadly, not masters, as has been demonstrated time and again. Now is the time to make clear that the demands are not legitimate -- to call upon experts in international law who will explain that there is no such thing as a right of return, and to put on the agenda of the international community the need to find an equitable solution for these "refugees." Now is the time to point a finger at the oil-rich Arab states that have donated only very modest sums to UNRWA for support of their fellow Arabs -- the very rich Arab states who gladly allowed them to wallow in misery.

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UNRWA, of course, bears enormous responsibility for the current situation. UNRWA, whose mandate says that these refugees remain refugees until they return to Israel (even if they have citizenship elsewhere). UNRWA, who has allowed these people to hang in limbo for three and now four generations, and who has told them that they have this right and that Israel prevents them from exercising it.

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In a nutshell: UNRWA, which is responsible for the Palestinian refugees, works with rules that are different from the rules of the High Commission for Refugees, an agency that handles all of the refugees of the world except the Palestinians. Only the Palestinians are so special that they get their own agency and their own rules. The High Commission has a practice of getting refugees settled as quickly as possible -- in the nation of origin if possible, but if not possible, elsewhere. They solve refugee situations. UNRWA not only sustains their refugee population, but has allowed it to grow (to over 4 million now) because descendants are counted, as are those who have new citizenship elsewhere.

The "right to return" is based on General Assembly resolution 194, which says, among other things, that "the refugees wishing to return to their homes and live at peace with their neighbors should be permitted to do so at the earliest practicable date." This, the claim is made, is the basis in international law for the "right.”

There is just a small catch: General Assembly resolutions are considered to be recommendations only, they have no standing in international law. Only security council resolutions do.

What is more, when this resolution passed in 1948, the Arab states voted against it because it mentions Israel and they refused to acknowledge the existence of Israel. Oh irony!

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"[The enemies of Allah] do not know that the Palestinian people has developed its [methods] of death and death-seeking. For the Palestinian people, death has become an industry, at which women excel, and so do all the people living on this land. The elderly excel at this, and so do the mujahideen and the children. This is why they have formed human shields of the women, the children, the elderly, and the mujahideen, in order to challenge the Zionist bombing machine. It is as if they were saying to the Zionist enemy: 'We desire death like you desire life.'"

So said Hamas MP Fathi Hammad on an Al Aqsa (Hamas) TV broadcast of February 29.

"... they have formed human shields of the women, the children, the elderly... "

MEMRI has captured this and provided translation. I encourage you to see this for yourselves at: http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/1710.htm

You can order the clip, or view a transcript, as well as viewing Hammad on the MEMRITV site.

Bookmark this particular MEMRI site, please, and share the URL broadly. The next time we are accused of wantonly killing civilians, reference should be made to this. In this way each of you can be an emissary on behalf of Israel -- writing letters to the editor citing this, and telling those who do not understand.

(MEMRI -- Middle East Media Research Institute -- is a non-profit, non-partisan research organization that "bridges the language gap between the West and the Middle East.")

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MEMRI captured yet another Palestinian speaking on TV on March 9. This time it was Qadura Fares, former PA minister and close confident of Marwan Barghouti, speaking about the massacre at Mercaz Harav. He said: "The Fatah movement does not denounce this kind of operation, and the Palestinian people has the right to conduct resistance against the occupation."

Mark well this statement from a member of the "moderate" Palestinian faction.

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Fatah officials announced today that they were ready to begin a dialogue with Hamas, if Hamas accepts the Yemeni initiative for reconciliation. A major Hamas official later said that his group did accept it, but it is still a bit unclear as to precisely what Hamas has agreed to. The initiative calls for returning Gaza to its status before the Hamas takeover and for early elections. It further calls for a unity government similar to what was forged at Mecca and security forces built on a national basis (meaning incorporating members of both groups).

This, just possibly, could be Abbas's answer to being squeezed by Rice, who demands that he sit with Israel while there are Israeli operations against Hamas in Gaza; it could save him from his increasingly weak position. And this may suit Hamas exceedingly well right now, as well: It would gain legitimacy and see the end to the siege of Gaza. The fact that Hamas was willing to talk about a ceasefire means it, too, is hurting.

Both groups now have delegations in Yemen and will be meeting with Yemen officials separately.

Big stuff. Let's see...

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It should be noted here that in a poll just taken, Ismail Haniyeh (Hamas) would beat Mahmoud Abbas (Fatah) if elections for president were held in Judea and Samaria, and Gaza, now.

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Olmert is holding tight in the face of the expressed concerns of US Ambassador to Israel Richard Jones regarding building in eastern Jerusalem. I find particularly charming the Jones statement that: "It is not easy for either side to move ahead when they see the provocative behavior of the other side." Notice the fine, even handed balance that equates support for a terrorist massacre by the PA with building housing units for Jews in eastern Jerusalem.

In a statement to the press, with regard to the building of more housing units in Har Homa, Olmert said, "Everyone knows that there is no chance that the State of Israel will give up a neighborhood like... Har Homa. It is an inseparable part of Jerusalem."

To which Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat declared, "This is totally unacceptable."

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Livni and Qurei were supposed to re-start peace talks today, but after Qurei heard about Olmert's remarks regarding Har Homa, he downgraded the meeting to "unofficial," saying the Palestinians would not agree to Israel adding a "single brick" to eastern Jerusalem.

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John McCain is here and has been welcomed very warmly.

So is German Chancellor Angela Merkel here on an historic visit, which I'd like to discuss in some more detail tomorrow.

Also, tomorrow, if time and space allow, more on our relationship with the Arabs living in Israel.

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Posting: March 17, 2008

"Sick"

It's hard for me to imagine that anyone who cares about Israel and sees what's going on now could avoid being at least a bit sick. Heartsick, for sure.

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Let's start with a statement from the EU: "While recognizing Israel's legitimate right to self defense, the European Council calls for an immediate end to all acts of violence."

Makes a lot of sense.

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What's really got the EU upset, however, is the question of settlements. A statement on this was issued after a summit of EU leaders:

"The EU reiterates that settlement building anywhere in the occupied Palestinian Territories, including East Jerusalem, is illegal under international law.

"Settlement activity prejudges the outcome of final status negotiations and threatens the viability of an agreed two-state solution."

~~~~~~~~~~

Well, there's so much wrong with this statement that it's hard to know where to start. But this provides me with an opportunity to provide some answers:

~~~~~~~~~~

The area of Judea and Samaria is, under international law, unassigned Mandate territory. The Mandate for establishing a homeland for the Jewish people between the river and the sea (which called for encouraging close settlement of the land) has never been superseded in international law. Until such time as the area is assigned, Israeli presence is legal.

~~~~~~~~~~

Israel is not an "occupier" in Judea and Samaria. This is a widely believed canard. "Occupation" refers to a situation in which one sovereign nation moves into the territory of another sovereign nation. This is not the case here at all.

~~~~~~~~~~

The "territories" are not "Palestinian." The Arabs identified today as Palestinians never possessed this area. The myths are so prevalent that many people actually have some vague, and very erroneous, notion that the Palestinians "had" the land and then Israel took it away.

The land was controlled for centuries by the Ottoman Empire, and then (from 1918-1948) by the British. When the British pulled out and Israel had to defend herself in the War of Independence, the Jordanians moved into Judea and Samaria. There was never a demand by the local population that Jordan should pull out and give them the land.

In fact, the PLO specifically said in its founding charter, in 1964, that there was no claim on this land (or on Gaza as controlled by the Egyptians). The claim was against Israel within the Green Line. When Israel took over in 1967, the land was taken from the Jordanians, not the local Palestinian Arabs. It was only after Israel was in Judea and Samaria that the Palestinian Arabs decided that had a claim to this area. Please understand this clearly.

I would add that it is not so that the Arabs in Judea and Samaria were all there for centuries. Undoubtedly some families do trace their lines back that way. But many of the present "Palestinians" derive from migratory groups who entered the area in recent times -- from other Arab areas -- for purposes of grazing their animals or seeking work.

~~~~~~~~~~

It is not the issue of settlements that is the stumbling block to peace. Yet another canard. It is the refusal of the Arab world to accept Israel's right to exist here as a Jewish state.

The assumption is being made that everything beyond the Green Line "belongs" to a future Palestinian state. That's what the Palestinians keep telling the world, and what the world has come to believe. But in point of fact, if (G-d forbid) there were to be a Palestinian state, its parameters would have to be negotiated.

The Green Line was never a border -- it was an armistice line only. When the armistice agreement was signed between Israel and Jordan (note: Jordan, not the "Palestinians"), it was written in that this armistice line would not prejudice future negotiations regarding a final border.

It was assumed that the armistice line would not be the border.

~~~~~~~~~~

This leads us to the significant issue of Israel's right to secure borders, which has been acknowledged even by the UN Security Council. Israel frozen inside the Green Line was recognized as not having defensible borders -- with a narrow waist of some 9 miles that could be traversed no time, cutting the State in two; lack of strategic depth against enemies approaching from the east; and high land in Samaria beyond the Green Line that made us -- our major cities and our airport -- vulnerable to being shelled.

The settlements were placed in Judea and Samaria at least in part as protection in this regard. The Gush Etzion Bloc protects Jerusalem from the south east and Ma'aleh Adumim protects her from the east.

And yet, everyone seems to think a return to the Green Line is what we must accept now, surrendering our protection. And surrendering it, no less, to an entity whose population is hostile to us. That's because the international community is concerned only with Palestinian presumed rights, and no one is guarding or cares about Israel's legitimate rights.

~~~~~~~~~~

In April 2004, President Bush wrote a letter to PM Sharon, prior to Sharon's plans to pull out of Gaza, praising him for his intentions. There were statements in that letter that Sharon claimed were a guarantee that we would be able to retain major settlement blocs in the advent of the establishment of a Palestinian state. The relevant portion of that letter, which alludes to the issue of secure borders:

"As part of a final peace settlement, Israel must have secure and recognized borders, which should emerge from negotiations between the parties in accordance with UNSC Resolutions 242 and 338. In light of new realities on the ground, including already existing major Israeli populations centers, it is unrealistic to expect that the outcome of final status negotiations will be a full and complete return to the armistice lines of 1949, and all previous efforts to negotiate a two-state solution have reached the same conclusion. It is realistic to expect that any final status agreement will only be achieved on the basis of mutually agreed changes that reflect these realities.

And yet, today, Bush, who was touted as our best friend ever, has totally reneged on this. Rice has explicitly made this clear on more than one occasion. We are being sold.

~~~~~~~~~~

This is the true obstacle to peace:

Dr. Walid Al-Rashudi, head of the Department of Islamic Studies at King Saud University, Saudi Arabia, gave a lecture that was carried on Al-Aqsa TV on February 29, 2008, and has been translated by MEMRI:

"One of the important things that we must tell people is that what is going on in Palestine today is a real holocaust. This is the real holocaust. A holocaust is not the burning of 50-60 Jews in Germany or Switzerland, but the Jews continue to call it the Holocaust...

"So what are we supposed to say in the face of the Gaza holocaust? What compensation will satisfy us? By Allah, we will not be satisfied even if all the Jews are killed."

Even more, this is the true obstacle to human decency in its most essential nature.

~~~~~~~~~~

According to the Washington Post yesterday, when Rice was here recently, and trying to get Abbas back to the negotiating table, she conferred with Egypt and then asked Olmert to make a statement: that if Hamas stopped launching rockets we would halt operations into Gaza. Craven coward that he is, he made the statement, even though it contravened what the Security Cabinet had just decided. Then Egypt was able to go to Hamas with this statement and convince them to stop.

It is no surprise to those of us who have been closely watching these events. Clearly, something was afoot. But now it has been reported.

~~~~~~~~~~

Rice is due back here in 10 days, to push the "process" harder. This is in anticipation of Bush's arrival in May

Said one US official: "The president's visit in May is intended to take action and achieve results, and therefore, the administration is interested in seeing some progress... Bush does not intend to act like a lame duck, so something has to happen on the ground by the time of the president's visit."

Well, bully for Bush. Something "has to happen" before he comes? This is our timetable?

~~~~~~~~~~

A meeting took place on Friday regarding implementation of the road map that was chaired by another of our enemies, US Gen. William Fraser, who is doing Rice's bidding. PA PM Fayyad attended. Amos Gilad, of the Defense Ministry, represented Israel. The PA was critical of Defense Minister Barak for not attending himself. I'm no fan of Barak's, but I salute this move, which was a deliberate snub.

~~~~~~~~~~

My prediction hasn't changed: At the end of the day, or the end of this ridiculous process, it will be the Palestinians who will save us. Because they won't get their act together and won't agree to any compromises.

Abbas, who is very weak, has Hamas breathing down his neck and has already been charged with collaboration with the enemy; he has to deliver on all demands or he can't sign. They will find their way out of this because it doesn't suit the radical vision of our destruction they still hold on to. There will be no peace agreement because there is no peace partner.

I just pray not too much damage will be done before this day arrives. There are still reports, for example, of Egypt's attempts to arrange that ceasefire with Hamas.

The harder Bush and Rice fall on their faces in the end, with regard to their attempts to push us into something disastrous, the better I will like it.

The Philadelphia Bulletin: Gunman Kills Eight at Jerusalem Seminary

Jerusalem - Thursday night is the traditional evening for intense Bible and Talmud study in a Yeshiva Talmudical learning academy seminary.
This Thursday night was no exception in one of Jerusalem's leading seminaries.

The Rabbi Kook Seminary houses more than 800 students of all ages in an academy that was founded 80 years ago by the first chief rabbi of the modern Jewish community in the land of Israel, Rabbi Isaac HaKohen Kook.

On_Thursday night, an Arab living in a Muslim neighborhood in Jerusalem entered the seminary, made his way up the steps to the second floor, and entered the study hall where small groups of students were studying with their respective rabbis.

In a terror attack which took place in a matter of 12 minutes, the toll was eight seminary students dead and 12 students badly wounded.

A student described how the Arab calmly pulled our his Kalatchnikov automatic weapon and began to fire his gun at random at the students.

Some of the students jumped from the second floor window, to get out of the range of fire.

The Arab then proceeded to go up two more flights of stairs, firing live ammunition at point- blank range, until he reached the roof, where he took up position to continue his shooting spree.

A student with a pistol shot the man as he ascended the roof. A neighbor of the yeshiva, an officer in an Israeli Army combat unit, pursued the Arab onto the roof with an M16 and finally killed the Arab.

As this story was being filed, not all of the parents who had lost sons on Thursday night had been located to inform them of their loss.

Yitzhak Dadon, the yeshiva student who shot the Jerusalem terrorist, says he was busy studying when suddenly shots rang out, prompting him to grab his gun and eventually kill the Palestinian attacker.

"We realized something happened so I cocked my handgun," Yitzhak Dadon told the Voice of Israel Radio.

"I went up on the roof and waited for the terrorist. Meanwhile, I saw blood and shattered glass," Mr. Dadon said.

"The terrorist continue firing in the air, so I waited to see him again, and then I shot him twice in the head."

Mr. Dadon says the terrorist continued firing even after he was hurt.

"He kept on firing until an IDF officer arrived and shot him again," Mr. Dadon said.

As he continued his interview with the Israeli radio, Mr. Dadon emphasized that the Arab whom he had helped to kill was carrying a weapon that "President Peres had authorized," reminding the Israeli public that Mr. Peres, as foreign minister and prime minister, had authorized automatic weapons for Fatah members who were loyal to PLO leaders Yassir Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas.

Only two weeks ago, PLO security forces had once again been deployed in Jerusalem at the PLO headquarters in a building known as the Orient House, which was closed in August for security reasons in 2001 at the height of terror attacks in Jerusalem.

Meanwhile the Arab terror attack in Jerusalem followed a day in which Arabs from Gaza had fired at least a dozen missiles on the southern Israeli towns of Sderot and Ashkelon.

Two homes in Sderot suffered direct hits. In one home, the Gaza missile destroyed the family living room, while the parents and four children were in the kitchen In the other home that was hit, the upstairs bedrooms suffered direct hits and were gutted by fire. The family was downstairs at the time. Both parents were hit by shrapnel and all of their three children suffered from smoke inhalation.

In terms of retaliation, U.S. Secretary of State Rice, still in the region, implored Israel not to strike back into Gaza, for fear of civilian loss of life in Gaza, since the Arab rocket launchers remain embedded in the civilian population of Gaza. Ms. Rice also implored Israel to continue with unconditional negotiations with Mr. Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen. However, the PBC, the Palestinian TV network run directly under Mr. Abbas' control and supervision, has been running clips from the Gaza morgues this week, with Mr. Arafat's voice used to call upon the Arab people to liberate the land of Israel from the Jews.

Indeed, The Bulletin asked the U.S. ambassador in Tel Aviv for comment on the incitement which is rampant on the PBC. The U.S. ambassador's spokesman asked for more information about Arab incitement on official PBC TV.

Indeed, The Bulletin provided the ambassador with a full report on the latest official incitement that emanates from the PBC Palestine Liberation Organization.

Two Weeks of Incisive Commentary by Arlene Kushner

by Arlene Kushner

Before returning to current news items, I would like to refer back to one of the themes of yesterday's posting, regarding the inability of some Israelis (some Jews) to defend the Israeli narrative.

Every so often I receive communications from people in the US who are staunch supporters of Israel that are essentially laments -- expressions of frustration, perhaps, or confusion. How can I speak out, I am asked, when the prime minister doesn't? How can I tell people that a two-state solution is a disaster when Olmert is pursuing it vigorously? Bottom line:

How can I contradict the government of Israel?

My response has been that it is important to support the people of Israel, not the government. But I think yesterday's discussion examines another, and very important, dimension of that same issue. Olmert and Livni may have lost the ability to tell Israel's narrative. They may have forgotten how to defend Israel because they are committed instead to a two-state solution, which leads them to believe that they must actually defend our enemy's goals.

But their position represents a pathology. And if your thinking is not pathological, if you clearly understand Israel's narrative, then it is your responsibility to tell it, and to defend without hesitation Israel's rights, even if this contradicts the goals of Oslo and what Olmert and Livni are about.

Very simply: Olmert and Livni may believe they are doing what is right. But they have lost their way, and what they promote is a danger to Israel. You want to tell a different story. ~~~~~~~~~~ Orient House, a building operated by the prominent Palestinian Husseini family, has in the past been utilized by the PLO to conduct business in Jerusalem. An Orient House website, somewhat dated, refers to the establishment as "the Palestinian national gathering place for Palestinians in Occupied East Jerusalem. As the PLO Headquarters in the occupied city, the Orient House aspires to develop Arab East Jerusalem as the capital of the emerging Palestinian state... "

It was closed down in 2001 at the time of the Intifada because of political activities in Jerusalem forbidden by the Oslo agreement. This past Monday, Maan, a Palestinian news agency, reported that the PLO has now again employed 30 - 40 people to work in Orient House. A Palestinian leader, Hatem Abdul Khadar, of Fatah, was quoted as saying that he and others were meeting with foreign dignitaries in the building. This is precisely what is forbidden -- using it as an unofficial embassy. ~~~~~~~~~~ According to the latest news from the Post, however, Israel has renewed the order to keep Orient House closed tight. In fact, a Jerusalem police spokesman says that the site is checked regularly and there's nothing going on there.

The Palestinians, claiming that Olmert had promised to open Palestinian institutions in Jerusalem, are bemoaning that "This is not a good sign for the peace process." They have asked the US consulate in eastern Jerusalem to intervene, but were told there would be no quick resolution. ~~~~~~~~~~ Brig.-Gen. (res.) Shalom Harari, a former senior adviser on Palestinian affairs at the Defense Ministry, has offered comments on this situation, explaining, according to the Post, that the closure had led to a dramatic reduction in anti-Israeli activity and an increase in security in eastern Jerusalem.

"Since its closure, the Palestinians have been mourning the loss of Orient House, and say they have lost the center of their revolutionary zeal in Jerusalem. I don't know if such a promise [by Olmert to the Palestinians] was made, but if it was, it was made secretly, because nothing has been made public about such a commitment."

During the Oslo process, Orient House acted as "an organizing factor" for riots and demonstrations. "We allowed the PLO to operate in Jerusalem during the 1990s, but not the Palestinian Authority. However, Orient House was quickly infiltrated by PA elements who turned it into a kind of 'extraterritorial embassy.'

"It... became an institution. Police were afraid to enter or search it, and Orient House enjoyed an informal diplomatic immunity status.

"The shutting down of Orient House was the end result of a long effort by right-wing Knesset Members, led by [then-Public Security Minister] Uzi Landau, who said that Orient's use as a PA base was a violation of Oslo... "After a major suicide bombing, Landau effectively forced the police to close it down." Harari explained that the police at first did not wish to raid the center due to fears of a violent backlash. But it never materialized. [Note: police fear of acting against illegal Palestinian behavior because there might be violence.]

After the raid, the center's records were confiscated; they vindicated the demands of the Knesset members who had wanted it closed down. "I can say that closing down Orient House was one of main acts that caused a reduction in open anti-Israeli activity in Jerusalem," Harari said. ~~~~~~~~~~

And an enlightening side observation: According to the Post, "[Hatem] Abdel Khader said the Palestinians had given the necessary assurances to the Israelis, adding that the office was to be used for cultural, economic and social projects."

But this is the same Abdul Khadar who told Maan, a Palestinian news agency, that he was meeting with foreign dignitaries in the building. ~~~~~~~~~~

US Special Envoy Gen. James Johns is floating the idea of bringing in NATO troops for Judea and Samaria for an interim period between when Israel would pull out and the PA would be able to secure the area. It's just an idea at this point and Israel has not signed off on it. If our government does agree -- G-d forbid -- it's even more lost than I think it is. Allow me to enumerate all the things wrong with this: First, the PA isn't supposed to get territory until it is ready to administer it. If other troops are necessary, they should be given nothing. What is clear here is that the US, which truly has lost its way completely, is so damn eager to put an agreement in place that they would turn it over to an incompetent PA and then attempt to bolster it from outside. What craziness.

Foreign troops would interfere with our ability to secure intelligence or do operations to take out terrorists or stop planned operations, as necessary. It is not even clear that we'd be able to do hot pursuit of those who have committed terrorist acts and are seeking refuge. Does anyone -- including Johns or Rice -- remotely believe that NATO forces would do what we've been doing, with night operations, intensive intelligence work, and all the rest? Clearly, if territory were to be turned over to an incompetent PA, this means a situation in which the terrorists would not have been eliminated, arrested or disarmed. Actually, some of them would still be in the PA security forces. What would result is a free ride for terrorists, with international forces standing between them and our troops, and the terrorists actually able to strengthen themselves.

Johns, it should be noted, served as a commander in NATO. Just a few days ago, the American ambassador to Israel, Richard Jones, hinted at the same thing. ~~~~~~~~~~

The precedent is there with UNIFIL in Lebanon (about which more below), which has allowed Hezbollah to rearm while protesting that we are "violating" the truce if we do flyovers to monitor what is happening.

I do think, however, that this is all moot, because I don't believe any European countries will want to get in the middle of this. Hamas has made it clear that they would shoot at any international forces placed in Gaza (where a similar suggestion has been made), as they would consider it an occupation. International forces in Judea and Samaria might be similarly vulnerable. And there certainly would be no guarantee, after NATO troops were in place, that the PA would ever be ready to assume responsibility. What we're looking at here is an assignment with -- as it's put -- no exit strategy. ~~~~~~~~~~

Reports are that Israel would like to predicate its exit strategy from Gaza, in event of a ground operation, on being replaced by international forces. But I think the same international reluctance to be involved would apply here, and more so because of Hamas threats. Some sources say that the IDF will go in if it's deemed necessary, even if there are no international forces in place.

It's time to wake up, I think, to the fact that when we go back in, we will not be exiting any time soon (and preferably never). ~~~~~~~~~~

Olmert made a statement earlier this week that was a serious misrepresentation (lie) and requires response. Said he: "Despite the [continuing] Kassam fire, [the "disengagement"] was a very good move since there are no longer 30,000 soldiers protecting 1,200 citizens."

First of all, it was 8,000 citizens, not 1,200. But more significantly, the soldiers were not there just to protect them. They were there to protect Israel, by securing areas from which Kassams might be fired, going after tunnels through which weapons might be smuggled, and stopping terrorist operations. Anyone who is ready to be honest about the situation will admit that the pullout was a security disaster. But it's clear Olmert isn't ready.

We haven't even received the approbation of the international community for this pullout, as promised by Sharon; we've met instead with condemnation because of how we're "treating" Gaza. ~~~~~~~~~~

As to UNIFIL: Spain may be thinking of pulling its troops out of that operation, and there is concern that this will influence others to follow suit. Matters are, shall we say, greatly unsettled in Lebanon right now with the prospect of escalating Hezbollah violence. A weakening of the UNIFIL force would further destabilize Lebanon and allow Hezbollah to move down into the south of the country unimpeded. ~~~~~~~~~~

We have deployed a battery of US-made Patriot air defense missiles in the vicinity of Haifa, as a precaution against an attack by Hezbollah. At the same time it has been announced that the Iron Dome system against short range rockets such as Kassams is in an advanced stage of development.

Regrettably, it has also been announced that the government is going to fortify only 3,600 homes in Sderot instead of the 8,000 originally announced. Homes within a range of 4.5 kilometers from the Gaza border are being targeted, as the Iron Dome system will not have enough time to respond to rockets launched from a distance of less than 4 kilometers. The plans call for building safe rooms over the course of the next two years. ~~~~~~~~~~

Abbas came to town a couple of days ago, to meet with Olmert, after which Olmert declared, "We didn't talk about Jerusalem!" while Saeb Erekat said they did.

Progress in negotiations is reportedly slow or non-existent, with Fayyad declaring that an agreement cannot be reached in 2008. All sorts of plans are in the works now for (shudder) "speeding things up," with more frequent meetings. ~~~~~~~~~~

Abbas, however, has vetoed the suggestion of Yasser Abed Rabbo that the PA follow Kosovo's example and unilaterally declare independence.

However slowly, said Abbas, negotiations are still going on and that's the path to take at present. If matters stalemate entirely, it would be time to consider other alternatives.

A pragmatic Saeb Erekat opined that what the Palestinians need is "real independence" and not just a declaration. "We are not Kosovo. We are under Israeli occupation and for independence we need to acquire independence." In other words, it wouldn't play here. Nor would the US be supportive. What their strategy will be (other than more violence) when negotiations stalemate remains to be seen. ~~~~~~~~~~

A bit of humor: Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister, Prince Saud Al-Faisal, in an attempt, I assume, to motivate us to move more quickly, has now said, "We hope that Israel responds positively to the strenuous efforts we are making, so that we do not despair and think about taking back our offer."

Strenuous efforts? Despair?

The offer: If we pull back to the pre-67 lines, which means giving the Palestinians the Kotel and the Temple Mount, allow a Palestinian state to be established with Jerusalem as its capital, and then permit four million "refugees" to "return" to Israel, the members of the Arab League will "normalize" relations with us. What this means with regard to full diplomatic relations has not be specified. ~~~~~~~~~~

Not so funny this week was a statement made by French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who said that Israel absolutely must reach a cease fire with Hamas to halt the "cycle" of Kassam attacks and responses. Israel responded to the implied moral equivalency with anger.

What angered me the most, however, was Kouchner's statement that he knew Israel was concerned that Hamas would use a ceasefire to build its strength, but Israel had "to take a chance..., to take a risk." Really now. How nice of him to decide this for us. ~~~~~~~~~~

When Olmert returned from his recent trip to Germany, there were reports coming from Der Spiegel that he was going to declare Goldwasser and Regev officially dead. The decision of the government has been not to do so, however, because there is no solid evidence of this (although there has been no sign that they are alive, either).

For some days there were hints that a deal was close for bringing Shalit home, but that now seems not the case. Apparently there was agreement on 240 prisoners to be released, but now there is contention about an additional 120. ~~~~~~~~~~

http://www.arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2008/2/21/february-21-2008-standing-strong.html

Posted on Thursday, February 21, 2008

February 20, 2008: Words and Weakness

Back to the second, and final, day of the Jerusalem Conference. And today I want to look at some very different aspects of the difficulties we face, beginning with what is called the new anti-Semitism and the specter of Durban II.

For those who do not remember, Durban I, held in 2001, was an international conference under UN auspices that was supposed to combat racism, but which morphed into an incredible anti-Semitic nightmare, setting the tone for much that followed such as boycotts against Israel.

Part of what happened in Durban is that NGOs, many ostensibly concerned with human rights but in reality virulently anti-Semitic, co-opted the conference with a vengeance.

Rabbi Abe Cooper, of the Wiesenthal Center, who was at Durban, described a scene in which all the NGOs had gathered to approve a document. One woman raised her hand and said, "Paragraph 11, clause 3, deals with anti-Semitism (it was a very obvious statement that should have been automatically accepted, such as one disapproving attacks on synagogues). "I don't understand this," she continued. What does anti-Semitism have to do with racism?" And the representative of NGOs agreed and deleted the clause.

Coming up in 2009 will be Durban II. It's important now to examine the environment we're dealing with and to know how to handle what lies ahead. ~~~~~~~~~~ Dr. Gerald Steinberg, who founded and directs NGO-monitor, out of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, spoke about the way in which many NGOs, under the guise of protecting human rights, have established positions designed to prevent us from defending ourselves. They level broad and sustained attacks on us, and they rely on big funds for the demonization of Israel. Many of you may be familiar with this approach -- the speed with which "human rights" groups run to attack Israel for killing children in Gaza, for example, even before facts are known.

Steinberg's group does several things. It monitors and exposes the bias of these groups. It communicates with donors who often have no clue what their funds were actually used for and withhold further donations once they learn. What is significant is that large amounts of EU money go to such groups; for the first time a report is about to be released that tracks precisely where the EU money goes. And it communicates with NGOs, eliciting information about their intended Durban II participation.

He is optimistic that progress is being made and that we've moved beyond where we were in 2001. ~~~~~~~~~~ Prof. Robert S. Wistrich -- Director, Vidal Sassoon International Center for the Study of Anti-Semitism, Hebrew University -- explained that anti-Semitism that was peripheral years ago has become mainstream today, in part because leftist students of a generation ago now hold positions of power.

But he addressed another problem as well -- one that I will come back to: There is a Jewish/Israeli contribution because of anti-and post-Zionist arguments that are exported to the rest of the world. In certain quarters there is a lack of conviction as to why Israel exists and what it represents. ~~~~~~~~~~

Anne Bayefsky, of the Hudson Institute, who founded Eye on the UN, spoke about the disinformation campaign, utilizing a UN platform, that followed Durban.

In an immoral inversion, Israel has been fashioned as the racist element in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The UN criticizes Israel twice as often as it criticizes Sudan. And it was someone associated with the UN who declared that there must be a "distinction between mindless terror and acts that are part of a liberation movement," concluding that Israel cannot expect a cessation of violence.

Bayefsky offered this very useful term: "humanitarian racists." Simply, it refers to groups that are ostensibly humanitarian, but hold only white people responsible for their actions. Colored peoples are only victims. (Starting to sound familiar?) But the refusal to hold colored peoples responsible for actions is racist at its core, for it relegates them to a lower moral level. ~~~~~~~~~~

Charles Jacobs, who founded and directs The David Project in Boston, observed -- right in line with Bayefsky's term -- that what motivates human rights groups is the identity of the oppressor and not of the oppressed. People who are victims of non-Westerners are abandoned. Jacobs, who has done work on this issue, pointed out that in Mauritania and Sudan there are slaves owned by Arabs, but the world pays little attention. Just as the human rights groups are enraged about perceived Israeli mistreatment of people in Gaza, but pay scant attention to the human rights suffering in Sderot. Jacobs suggest we ally with others and go on the offensive.

Jacobs also offered this insight: There is a Muslim idea that the act of Jews ruling over themselves puts the world out of joint because Israelis (as Jews) are Dhimmi. (Dhimmi is a concept in Islamic law that relegates to certain non-Muslim groups, notably Christians and Jews, second class, subservient status.)

The goal of The David Project, I will add, is to populate campuses in American with students who are articulate and informed with regard to Israel. ~~~~~~~~~~

The final participant on this panel was Dr. Manfred Gerstenfeld, of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. I recently attended a very informative lecture by Dr. Gerstenfeld on anti-Semitism, its nature today and how to combat it, and would like to save his comments for another posting. ~~~~~~~~~~

And so I will turn now to the subject of hasbara (alternately defined as information or propaganda). Journalist Caroline Glick, who chaired the forum discussing this subject, defined it thus: information dispensed in the public arena in order to advance the national interest.

What is necessary for hasbara, she says, is the national desire to advance in the public arena, a goal that is logical or rational, and an appropriate style.

I ask that you follow the ensuing discussion closely, as it is exceedingly important:

Glick maintains that Israel's hasbara has collapsed because we are saying that the solution to the situation we find ourselves in is two-states (i.e., the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside us). This puts the onus on us, and we have no way to explain ourselves.

What we have actually said is that we want to advance the interests of our enemy. This leads to a covering up of truth because the truth works against the declared two-state goal.

Caroline Glick is absolutely correct. Think about the bind in which we've put ourselves. ~~~~~~~~~~

Others participating in this forum carried this theme further. Isi Liebler, who chairs the JCPA Diaspora-Israel relations committee, asked what went wrong. His assessment was that the change -- which led to doubts about the justice of our cause -- came most significantly with Oslo. Israel had declared herself ready to accept Arafat as a "peace partner" and so the obsession became one of promoting him as such.

This led to a refusal to defend ourselves. PM Yitzhak Rabin, at the start of the Oslo, told AIPAC to stop defending us. I've heard in other contexts stories about how Shimon Peres, as Foreign Minister, gave orders that nothing negative was to be said about Arafat.

We began defending "peace" instead of promoting the Israeli narrative. What other nation, it was asked, minimizes the sins of its enemies?

It has gone so far that Olmert has essentially adopted the Palestinian narrative. And if you look back to what I wrote, with despair, about Livni yesterday, you see that she fits the same mold -- so eager to pursue "peace" that she has lost the ability to stand up for who we are. ~~~~~~~~~~

Elyakim HaEtzni, lawyer and former MK, didn't accept that things fell apart with Oslo. For this doesn't explain how we got to Oslo.

His conclusion is that this is pathological, that we (as a nation) are sick. And this is something that I have suggested many a time. HaEtzni, citing other thinkers, offered a couple of reasons as to how we got this way. The first is that we were beaten down in galut (diaspora) and have internalized the hatred of our oppressors. I concur. We need more than 60 years on the land again to get past this, after 2000 years of being subservient to others around the globe. There is an eagerness to please that is a result of needing to please when we were powerless.

Another suggestion HaEtzni offered comes out of our religion, which leads us as Jews to be self-critical. The Temple was destroyed -- our tradition didn't ask what did others do to us, it asks what we did to bring this upon ourselves.

Self-critique, to a point, is a moral virtue and a strength; it allows us to be responsible for ourselves rather than think like victims. But beyond a certain point it is decidedly unhealthy and counterproductive. There is the example of the Al Dura case (about which I wrote not long ago).

Israeli soldiers were accused by devious plotting Palestinians of having shot the Al Dura boy during a gun battle. Before a serious analysis of the situation was done (which would have shown that, because of the angle of the shooting, etc. etc. we couldn't have done it), IDF officers were apologizing.

Yet another thought offered during this discussion was that our people to a considerable degree have lost touch with our religious traditions and who we are, which makes us unable to defend ourselves or share our narrative. Truth lies here, as well. ~~~~~~~~~~

Last, British journalist Melanie Phillips addressed this issue from a British perspective. There is, she informed us, incredible venom against Israel in Britain today. There is, of course, Muslim influence, as well as a variety of other factors at play. But part of it, she explained, is ignorance. The British truly believe that Israel was created after the Holocaust so that European Jews (who had no previous connection to the land) could be brought, displacing Arabs who had been on the land since antiquity. This, of course, is the Arab narrative.

The British don't receive the Israeli narrative.

She said people's jaws drop when she tells them about our ancient connection to this land, and the fact that no other people ever had a nation here, as well as about the legal foundations of the Mandate for Palestine, giving Jews a promise of a homeland well before the Holocaust. People just don't know. ~~~~~~~~~~

And so, my concluding thought is this:

It's difficult not to be deeply pained and depressed by what is discussed here. But it seems to me that what matters is that we right matters however and wherever we can.

What we see is that there is Gerald Steinberg doing a great job with NGO-monitor, and Anne Bayefsky with Eye on the UN, and Manfred Gerstenfeld, who has a very effective blog on anti-Semitism, and Charles Jacobs doing The David Project, and Melanie Phillips in Britain. And Professor Richard Landes, also a conference participant, who took on the Al Dura case, and on and on. It's an effort we all need to join, each in his or her own way.

This is essentially why I write these posts.

We're not all pathological, and some of us know our narrative and believe in who we are.

I turn to each of you reading this, if you care about Israel staying strong in this world: I suggest that each of you needs to be a messenger -- informing yourselves and telling Israel's narrative wherever you can. Don't imagine that it doesn't matter. It does. ~~~~~~~~~~ http://www.arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2008/2/20/february-20-2008-words-and-weakness.html

Posted on Wednesday, February 20, 2008

February 19, 2008: Desperate I am referring to the words of Foreign Minister Tzipni Livni.

Today was the first day of the Jerusalem Conference -- an all-day affair with many speakers examining issues such as retaining a united Jerusalem and ensuring Israeli security. I'll share here what several people said, starting with Livni.

Livni was attempting to explain why the government was negotiating now. If I had read her words somewhere, I might have been uneasy about repeating them, suspecting that she had been misquoted. But I heard her with my own ears.

"We have to write down the principle of two states," she told us. Israel as a homeland for Jews, and Palestine as a homeland for Palestinians. If we don't write this now and establish the principle, we might not have another chance. For we are facing people who want us gone.

Got it? She is so afraid of forces that would destroy us, that she's willing to accept what may be less than we are entitled to, just for the opportunity to get it in writing that Israel has a right to exist as a Jewish state. And she believes that if we are to do it, it must be "today," because another chance might not come. ~~~~~~~~~~

There are so many things wrong with this approach it's difficult to know where to start. It is, first of all, appeasement, which never works: giving to the Palestinians so we won't be destroyed. Second it conveys a message of incredible weakness, and this is absolutely the last way who should go into negotiations. Why should the Palestinians even think of conceding anything when she makes it clear how hungry she is just for that piece of paper? "Write it down."

Worst of all is her shameful lack of Israeli pride and sense of entitlement. Why should our right to exist depend on a piece of paper arranged with the Palestinians? We are a sovereign state, with an ancient tradition on the land and a host of international legal precedents behind us. We are also a powerful nation, fully capable of defending ourselves.

We have diplomatic and commercial relationships with a growing number of nations, and we make huge contributions to the world via our hi-tech development and medical science. ~~~~~~~~~~

And there's still more, as a later speaker, Dr. Dore Gold, now head of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, pointed out the following issues:

First, there is the fact that the negotiation plan calls for setting the parameters for the agreement now but not enacting them until certain stipulations on the other side have been met.

Warns Dr. Gold, just as I have warned here many times, once that paper is signed there may well be pressure from the international community to "take it off the shelf" before those stipulations have been met. You don't sign a piece of paper giving certain things away until the conditions are right. We have in this regard the precedent of the Road Map, which called for dismantling of terrorism by the PA before we moved to discussing a state. But this has been shoved aside as too cumbersome and now we're talking about a state even though stage one was not realized.

Dr. Gold further points out that "You have to assume that the other side will violate the agreement." We have the precedent of years of Palestinian violations. ~~~~~~~~~~

I would add to this the fact that insisting that we won't have another chance puts unreasonable and undue pressure on us to negotiate. It's an act of desperation. ~~~~~~~~~~

Moving past what Livni said, I want to turn to discussion by a panel on the subject of "Regional and Global Strategic Threats to Israel." Distinguished participants touched upon issues that are exceedingly somber, providing perspectives that are important.

Dr. Rafi Yisraeli, Professor of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at Hebrew University, reminded us of what an error it is to speak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is, rather, the Israeli-Arab conflict, or, perhaps more accurately the Jewish-Islamic conflict as non-Arab Muslim states such as Iran and Pakistan are involved. ~~~~~~~~~~

The conflict, says Dr. Yisraeli, is not a quantitative one, involving interests or assets, which allows for give and take until a resolution is reached. It is a qualitative conflict, which is about religion and values and is not amenable to compromise. It's take it or leave it.

There was a time when there was a Christian geographic continuity in eastern Europe. But the Iranians have been involved in conflicts in Serbia, Albania, Kosovo, so that this is no longer the case. And here, since Oslo, we have been in a process of retreat. ~~~~~~~~~~

Maj. Gen. (res) Yaakov Amidror concurred, pointing out that you cannot deal with a values conflict the way an interest conflict is responded to. Such a conflict is resolved historically over a long haul and we had best be prepared for this. ~~~~~~~~~~

MK Yuval Steinitz (Likud), former chair of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, reminded us that the so-called "moderate" Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt have not encouraged the Palestinians to settle the conflict with us. For we represent western values that are challenged by Islamic values. Egypt, for example, discouraged Arafat from accepting Barak's offer in 2000.

While Israel has enormous strengths and has achieved a great many things in the last 30 years, we are facing grave threats in the next two or three years and are not currently doing enough to meet them. MK Steinitz sees four developments with regard to Israeli defense and security:

1) Unquestionably, the specter of Iran developing nuclear capability is paramount, with the possibility of this, indeed, leading to WWIII. The NIE assessment is behind us now and there is solid communication between the Knesset and Congress, which is clear on the threat.

2) There has been very rapid development of new advanced weapons systems in the area -- in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iran.

3) If the US withdraws from Iraq before too long, it may be possible for Iran to enter into Iraq. In this case, we might see Iranian troops moving into Syria and might be confronting them one day on the Golan.

4) The Arabs are using missiles and rockets as a means of attacking us indirectly, without full scale ground war. The concern is that their range and their accuracy are increasing. Thus missiles may become a threat to our military headquarters.

There are ways to counter this via the development of missile defense systems and interception systems for medium and short range rockets. Additionally we must develop massive fire power with regard to our own missile capacity.

We must do everything we possibly can. ~~~~~~~~~~

Dr. Meyrav Wurmser, Director, Center for Middle East Policy, Hudson Institute in Washington, DC, provided a significant understanding of the way in which the Iranian threat to us has changed via its involvement with Hamas, which has developed in stages over some 20 years. Iran, which provides money, weapons and training to Hamas, may even have masterminded the Hamas coup in Gaza.

It is a mistake to think of the conflict with Hezbollah and that with Hamas as separate -- they are all part of the same war with Iran.

The accepted wisdom on the nature of the Islamic world -- as divided into Shiite and Sunni camps violently at odds with each other -- no longer applies. We see Haniyeh of Hamas, which is Sunni, speaking of Iran as the defender of the faith.

What Iran now has is a Levant strategy for an Islamic Caliphate. To that end Iran is actually seeking Sunni clients to help in the fight against the West. Hamas, which has global aspirations, fits well into Iran's scheme. So much is this the case, that Iran even allow Hamas to invite Sunni Al Qaeda into Gaza.

The implications are vast. Terrorist organizations are cooperating. Iran is most interested in importing radical Islam (of either kind) in order to further the Islamic Revolution. ~~~~~~~~~~

On a more positive note, several speakers addressed the absolute necessity of keeping Jerusalem united eternally as Israel's capital. It is broadly understood that Jerusalem possess a special sanctity for the Jewish people and is at the heart of what we are all about.

Nir Barkat, a member of the City Council of Jerusalem, is seeking documentation of the fact that Haim Ramon is negotiating a secret third track on Jerusalem, so that action can be taken.

MK Gidon Saar (Likud) spoke about the bill, which has passed its first reading, that will revise Jerusalem Law so that a majority of the Knesset would be required for any concessions on Jerusalem.

He is deeply concerned about the renewal of activity at Orient House (about which I hope I will write more in coming days) and the freezing of construction.

He points out that the argument for division of the city along demographic lines is deceivingly dangerous. The case is made by persons such as Haim Ramon for giving the PA areas that are primarily Arab. This is generally represented as referring to outlying neighborhoods. However, from the time of the Jordanian occupation of Jerusalem, when the city was made Judenrein, there are important areas such as Ir David (The City of David, the ancient area that was the original Jerusalem and lies just outside of the Old City) that also have heavily Arab population. ~~~~~~~~~~

I anticipate sharing more tomorrow. Other news will have to wait. ~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2008/2/19/february-19-2008-desperate.html

Posted on Tuesday, February 19, 2008

February 17, 2008: Charade

You'll find no enormous credence given in these postings to what the Palestinians have to say; frequently their statements are best reviewed with a jaundiced eye. But every now and then what they say makes sense, even if their positions are antithetical to ours.

What do you mean, negotiate on Jerusalem last? PA leaders asked late last week. We're discussing core issues. One of those issues is borders. How can we finalize borders without discussing what part of Jerusalem we'll have? And another issue is settlements. For us, Jerusalem neighborhoods such as Gilo and Ramot are settlements. How can we not also discuss these? And you know what? It's difficult to argue with this. Everything has to be on the table at once (or, preferably, nothing, but that's another story).

The point here is simply that in spite of this argument, Shas continues to pretend that Olmert is straight with them when he says Jerusalem is not being discussed. That, my friends, is the charade. ~~~~~~~~~~

According to YNet, a Gaza ground operation is in the works. It has not yet been put into action as preparations are not complete.

Details are being kept quiet in order to ensure maximum surprise. But this time the goals have been clearly defined.

The short term, tactical goals are:

-- Speedy facilitation of intelligence-gathering capacity (which will make everything else possible).

-- A drastic reduction in firing of Kassams and mortars, achieved quickly.

-- Destruction of military infrastructure, arsenals and weapons manufacturing sites belong to all the terrorists groups.

-- Blocking of smuggling at the Philadelphi Corridor.

-- Avoiding a humanitarian crisis for the Palestinian civilian population. All of this will take time, will be painful, and is very necessary. According to this report, the strategic objectives are:

-- Removing Hamas from power and establishing a stable Palestinian regime with international assistance.

-- Demilitarizing Gaza for a period of time.

-- Achieving effective Israeli security and monitoring for years to come.

It's the first strategic objective, if it is being accurately reported, that I have problems with. First, because we should do this to benefit our security situation and NOT for the sake of Mahmoud Abbas. This would be short-sighted objective that is not in our best interest.

And then, it is still, in my opinion, pie-in-the-sky to imagine there can be a "stable Palestinian regime." It's time to get real. This operation is frequently compared to Operation Defensive Shield of 2002, in which we went into Palestinian areas of Judea and Samaria after horrendous terror attacks. But it has been a great success only because we've retained a presence in these areas for the last six years and do regular operations there. Had we pulled out, there would have been chaos. Remember? Abbas is afraid to leave Ramallah. Who is going to constitute that "stable regime" in Gaza? (There is talk of Europeans doing it but this would be a real disaster, and, I do not believe will ever happen.) ~~~~~~~~~~

On Friday, 14 gunmen blew up the library in a YMCA in Gaza. This is the latest in a series of attacks on Christians. Thousands of books were burnt in the ensuing fire. ~~~~~~~~~~

American citizens who were victims of PA terror, or who lost family to PA terror, and have been awarded monetary payments by US courts, went to Washington last week to meet with officials of the State Department and Justice Department. But apparently they did not come away convinced that what they said would ultimately make a difference.

One of those who went was Shayna Elliot, who was shot in the chest while waiting for a bus on Jaffa Road in Jerusalem in 2002. She lost a lung and is in constant pain. "It's obscene that they would get in involved in our case," she said. "It's obscene that they could be against the terror victims."

Before the visit, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack gave a statement for reporters: "We are absolutely committed to defending the rights of our citizens. We are also fully committed to pursuing our national interest and defending our national interest. At this point, I don't have anything to offer in terms of a decision one way or another on this particular issue."

What does it say when the "national interest" and the "rights of citizens" are in conflict? The US government has until February 29th to decide whether to get involved. ~~~~~~~~~~

Aides of Mahmoud Abbas are charging in strong terms that Mohammad Dahlan is trying to oust him as head of Fatah. The attack on Dahlan was approved by Abbas, who is feeling threatened by the young guard, headed by Dahlan.

There is much argument as to who was responsible for the failure to defeat Hamas in Gaza: Abbas, as President, or Dahlan, as former head of Fatah security in Gaza.

From my perspective, the in-fighting provides a bit of diversion. There are no good guys here, you see; there is no one to root for. The young guard is absolutely right when they complain that they've been frozen out by the old guard, which has not mended its ways. Abbas and company are knee-deep in issues of corruption and incompetence. You get a bit of the picture when you learn that the last time Fatah held a General Conference to elect new central committee and revolutionary council members was in Tunisia in 1987. (There's talk of holding such a conference now.)

Dahlan? They don't come any lower than this man, and I never miss the opportunity to remind people of this. Corruption is not the only issue. There is also terrorism, and this the young guard is not adverse to. Never mind that Dahlan was directly involved in the Karine-A weapons ship. The other day I wrote about the Cohen family, whose three children collectively lost four limbs in a school bus bombing. It was Dahlan who ordered that school bus to be bombed. ~~~~~~~~~~

Speaking of young children who have lost limbs, doctors now feel that Osher Twito's remaining leg is no longer at risk. Osher had been maintained in a coma, but has now been allowed to regain consciousness; he is on very heavy painkillers. While breathing on his own, he has not yet spoken. He has not yet been told that he has lost a leg. ~~~~~~~~~~

Egypt is in the process of building a new wall along the Egypt-Gaza border that will be made of concrete and reinforced to withstand the sort of explosions that brought down the previous wall made of metal and barbed wire. Hamas is threatening to shoot at anyone building the wall unless Rafah is opened. They have already shot over the heads of Egyptian workers.

A Hamas delegation led by Mahmoud Zahar went into Egypt, to El Arish, reportedly at Egyptian request, on Friday, to discuss the Rafah opening. The Egyptians were responding to reports that Hamas was planning to forcibly open the border again at the end of the month. The message to be given to Hamas: Our period of self-restraint is over; our guards have orders to shoot.

This does not mean, however, that a mechanism for allowing crossings of persons and goods will not be negotiated in the end between Egypt and Hamas. ~~~~~~~~~~

Caroline Glick, in her Friday column, writes about the strong possibility that Mughniyeh was killed not for what he had already done but rather for what he was about to do.

Says Glick: "On January 30, French security services raided a Paris apartment and arrested six Arab men. Three of the men - two Lebanese and one Syrian - were traveling on diplomatic passports. According to the Italian Libero newspaper, the six were members of a Hezbollah cell. Documents seized included tourist maps of Paris, London, Madrid, Berlin and Rome marked up with red highlighter to indicate routes, addresses, parking lots and "truck stopping points." The maps pointed to several routes to Vatican back entrances.

Libero 's report explained that the "truck stopping points" aligned with information the French had received the week before from Beirut. There, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah had convened a conference of his senior terror leaders where he ordered them to activate Hezbollah cells throughout Europe to kidnap senior European leaders.

"... All of the feared terror attacks against French and European targets have the classic earmarkings of Hezbollah operations chief and Iranian Revolutionary Guards officer Imad Mughniyeh. Mughniyeh was the pioneer of embassy bombings and high-profile kidnappings." ~~~~~~~~~~

The Sunday Times (London) had a different take today, but also focused on what he was going to do: It alleges, according to "informed Israeli sources," that the Mossad took out Mughniyeh because he was working with the Syrians to plan an attack against Israel to avenge the IAF strike on a Syrian site in September 2007. ~~~~~~~~~~

The connection Mughniyeh had with Iran, and the degree to which he operated at the behest of the Iranian regime, brings us around to focus on the Iranian nuclear issue. This is not something that we can ever afford to lose sight of. Less than two weeks ago, head of the Mossad, Meir Dagan, delivering an assessment to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, declared that Iran would have nuclear weapons within three years and remained Israel's chief strategic threat.

According to Dagan, the US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) made it harder to impose sanctions on Iran. It "pulls the rug out from under" diplomatic efforts,"leaving Israel to face the threat alone." ~~~~~~~~~~

Just about a week after Dagan's report, Vice Admiral (USN Retired) Michael McConnell, United States Director of National Intelligence, testifying before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, backtracked on the NIE for which he had been responsible: "I think I would change the way that we described [the Iranian] nuclear program."

What he now says is that the weapon program that the NIE judged "with high confidence" was halted in 2003, really constitutes "the least significant portion" of a nuclear weapons program. For uranium enrichment is continuing apace.

The damage that has been done is enormous.

Please, see Jerusalem Post editor David Horovitz on this, "What We Meant to Say Was...
" It is critically important. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1203019385690&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

~~~~~~~~~~

Meanwhile, last week Sami Alfaraj, president of the Kuwait Centre for Strategic Studies, said that Persian Gulf States believe that Israel will strike Iran rather than permit it to become nuclear. He maintains that states in the region will not become nuclear themselves, but will instead rely on a "nuclear umbrella" - even if it meant appealing to Israel.

"I believe in something on the same Iraqi [Osirak reactor] model... We are assuming in the Gulf that Israel will take it out."

Oh irony! ~~~~~~~~~~ http://www.arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2008/2/17/february-17-2008-charade.html

Posted on Sunday, February 17, 2008 at 02:45 a.m. by Arlene

February 14, 2008: Issues Coming Clear

"Issues Coming Clear"

It's a balagan (a confused situation) and could make you crazy if you try to make sense out of what you read in the press:

-- Olmert has denied that Jerusalem is being discussed in negotiations; Qurei doesn't set the agenda for talks, he insists.

-- Shas, which is eager to remain in the government, has accepted this denial, and is staying "for now." The charade of staying in a government that wants to divide Jerusalem eventually, even if (a big if) perhaps it is not doing so at the moment, is breathtaking.

-- Nir Barkat, a member of the Jerusalem City Council, says that he has evidence from "secret sources" that in secret meetings Israel and the PA have already agreed on dividing Jerusalem. Livni, he says, knows about this secret channel and thus is complicit. In correspondence with Livni, Barkat has written that " " I would like to remind you that if this is true, it constitutes a complete deviation from Kadima's basic principles, a blatant violation of Basic Law: Jerusalem, a breach of the voter's trust and an undermining of the Knesset's sovereignty." ~~~~~~~~~~

And so, I have now gone to my own very knowledgeable "secret source," who is happy to share information with me provided that his name is not used. Some of what he says many of you will already have intuited or understood from various public sources; what he does is provide confirmation. But he also offers details, perspective, and additional information that is likely to be new to most.

There are, says my source, three channels of negotiations:

First there is the Ehud Olmert-Mahmoud Abbas channel. They are establishing basic principles only and not dealing with details. They do not write anything down, they simply talk. And thus they have deniability. There is no question that they have discussed Jerusalem and have agreed in principle that it will be shared. Abbas makes no compromises; in all instances where agreement is reached, it is because Olmert has acceded to a PA demand.

Then there are the day-to-day negotiations of teams headed by Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Ahmed Qurei, former PA prime minister. These negotiations involve written notes and so both sides are fearful of committing themselves prematurely. For this reason, there has been no progress on major issues; it is with regard to this level that it is said that talks are frozen. The teams are restricting themselves to discussing "pragmatics." As far as Jerusalem is concerned, they are talking about such matters as building in various neighborhoods and the possibility of re-opening Orient House. But my observation is that as much as this is called "pragmatic" it is ultimately political: To give Fatah a presence in Jerusalem, for example, is to concede that part of Jerusalem will belong to Fatah. ~~~~~~~~~~

Finally, there is the back-channel, which is what Barkat was alluding to (and he has details correct). It is also what Palestinians I've cited in recent days were referring to: on the table and under the table, open and secret meetings, etc.

The person representing Israel in these meetings is Deputy Premier Haim Ramon. He began these meetings in Rome, shortly after Fatah lost Gaza. At that time he met with Salam Fayyad, who was named PA prime minister when Abbas reconstituted his government after the Gaza rout. But the Fatah powers objected to this, because Fayyad was willing to make some compromises and they want NO compromises. What sort of compromises was Fayyad willing to consider? Maybe half a million refugees returned to Israel instead of all four million. Maybe the PA would get all of eastern Jerusalem except for the Kotel, which would remain Israeli. Fayyad was not powerful enough to withstand Fatah objections.

And so now strong man Mohammad Rashid is negotiating with Ramon. ~~~~~~~~~~

Rashid was a trusted confident of Arafat and was deeply involved in financial shenanigans of the PA (as was Qurei, incidentally). And Rashid and Ramon are business partners. What is more, Haim Ramon has a direct connection with South African/Austrian multi-millionaire businessman Martin Schlaff, who is shoulder-deep in issues of corruption in this country. Or, as Gidi Weitz and Uri Blau describe him in Haaretz in a recent major expose on these issues, Schlaff plays "the role of the omnipotent Jewish gvir [patron] who wants to manage the affairs of the Middle Eastern shtetl." http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=948291&contrassID=2&subContrassID=14

Anyone familiar with the investigations of Ariel Sharon will know the name Schlaff. More recently there are corruption investigations involving Schlaff with Olmert and Lieberman. Schlaff won't set foot in Israel now, for fear of being immediately arrested. For a summary of this, far briefer than the very extensive Haaretz article, see: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/125032. ~~~~~~~~~~

My source tells me that whatever Ramon and Rashid might come up with in terms of an agreement will not be accepted by the PA because of the intransigence of Fatah with regard to any compromises. Remember that Farouk Kadoumi, who was opposed totally to Oslo, has huge influence on the Central Committee of Fatah.

And from our side, dear Heaven, do we need to clean house! ~~~~~~~~~~

Interesting: Rabbi Ovadia Yosef's eldest son, Rabbi Yaakov Yosef, has come out with a position that opposes his father's. He says Shas must quit the government immediately because support for Olmert's government endangers Jews.

Rabbis from Sderot have gone to see Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, to try to convince him that it was important that Shas leave the government, and they came away terribly frustrated.

I've asked myself what it might be that would convince Ovadia Yosef that Shas should pull out. And I have no answers. I do not know Rabbi Yosef and certainly cannot see into his head.

And so, it's difficult to be certain if this is relevant now (and yet hard to believe it's not): The Haaretz expose says that Shas faction head Eli Yishai was known to be present at a February 2001 meeting with Rashid, Ramon and Schlaff. And that Aryeh Deri -- who was head of the Shas faction until he was convicted of corruption in 1999 and sentenced to three years in prison -- has Schlaff connections, both business and personal. Just months ago, Schlaff held a reception in Vienna on the occasion of his grandson's brit milah. The contingent from Israel included Aryeh Deri, who presided over the circumcision. (Ramon was also there, incidentally.) ~~~~~~~~~~

A Kassam rocket hit a house in Sderot yesterday. Responsibility has been claimed by Al Aksa Brigades, in retaliation for the assassination of Hezbollah arch-terrorist Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus. Al Aksa, it should be noted, is part of the "moderate" Fatah. ~~~~~~~~~~

I've written recently about theories that Egypt might take over or have more influence in Gaza, and other hints that we might weaken or take out Hamas in Gaza so that Fatah can resume control there.

Here we have yet another take, this one by Efraim Inbar, director of BESA, the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. "In Gaza; Risks and Opportunities," Inbar writes the following. Please note the last sentence of this segment.

"It is very understandable that Egypt does not want to again rule over Gaza. Nevertheless, Hamas's success in opening the Egypt-Gaza border places Egypt on the horns of a dilemma.

"Thus far, Egypt enjoyed the bleeding of Israel, a regional rival, by Hamas â€" with little cost to itself. But Hamas has grown more powerful and its free access to Sinai has become dangerous. Hamas is far from being the darling of the current Egyptian regime since its links to the Muslim brethren threaten the rule of President Mubarak and his heir. The indecisive Egyptian reaction to the breach in the Rafah wall reflected this dilemma.

"On the one hand, Egypt must show solidarity with the Palestinians and sensitivity to their suffering. Therefore, it allowed Gazans to enter its territory. On the other hand, Egypt is a proud sovereign country that wants full control over its borders. It is particularly fearful of the influence of Hamas at home...

"It is not yet clear how the Egyptian dilemma will play out. One distinct possibility is a greater Egyptian role in Gaza to limit the Islamist influence. This is advantageous for Israel, even if some terror may still originate in Gaza. Actually, such a scenario could evolve only after a large-scale Israeli military operation that would extract a heavy price from Gaza, seriously weakening Hamas, particularly its military wing." ~~~~~~~~~~ Israel, while currently at greater risk abroad and in the north, will reap benefits in a variety of ways from the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh. There is deterrence value, because -- whoever did kill Imad Mughniyeh -- much of the world is convinced the Mossad is responsible. If he could be hit, anyone can be hit, and terrorist leaders will rest less easy. According to Al Hayat in London, Mughniyeh had been in Syria -- coming in under secret identity -- only hours before his death by car bomb. That this could have been pulled off is most impressive. There are reports that Mughniyeh had met in Damascus only weeks ago with Hamas strongman Khalid Mashaal to discuss Gaza. A blessing that he will no longer be around to provide advice and guidance. What is more, he was the key link between Hezbollah and Iran, overseeing the apparatus for international terror attacks. ~~~~~~~~~~ When writing yesterday about the possibility that the US government might intervene in court findings that required the PA to pay large punitive sums to survivors of Americans who lost their lives in PA-connected terrorist attacks, I suggested that President Bush be contacted and I provided contact information.

I have since heard from members of this list who think that information for contacting the State Department should also be provided. I had not done so sooner because I have the feeling that ultimately Bush is more accessible and Rice is totally a lost cause. But, they are correct; it doesn't hurt to try. And so here I provide some information for State. Use it, if you wish, in addition to, but not instead of contact with the president. Say that you would like Sec. of State Rice to receive the message. Fax: 202-647-2283 (from Doris Wise Montrose) Phone: 202-647-4000 (from Esther Kandel) ~~~~~~~~~~ http://www.arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2008/2/14/february-14-2008-issues-coming-clear.html

Posted on Thursday, February 14, 2008

February 13, 2008: Totally Lost "Totally lost?"

Before I talk about being totally lost, I'm going to share something that brings a smile, because we desperately need to smile now and then to stay sane and healthy.

This is a Dry Bones cartoon entitled "Reductum Ad Absurdum."

Watson: "Holmes, the UN refers to Gaza as occupied territory. But the only non-Palestinian force now in Gaza is the UN itself.

"Does this mean that Gaza is occupied by the UN?"

Holmes: "What it means, Watson, is that the 'Palestinians' have occupied the UN."

Political cartoonist Yaakov Kirshen gets it just right. See the cartoon and Kirshen's description of the dialogue that inspired it, at: http://drybonesblog.blogspot.com/2008/02/reductum-ad-absurdum.html

(Thanks to Cheryl Hoffer for calling my attention to this.) ~~~~~~~~~~ One begins to wonder if the US is also occupied by the 'Palestinians.' Consider:

American victims of terror attacks here in Israel -- or their surviving families -- have sued the Palestinian Authority in US courts and have received judgments against the PA totaling hundreds of millions of dollars, none of which has been paid. These judgments were made possible because of testimony that specifically linked senior PA leaders to attacks.

Lawyers for the PA are trying to avoid payment, and to that end have asked for assistance from the US government. Their argument is that it makes no sense for the US to provide assistance to the PA while US courts are threatening to bankrupt the PA because of ideologically motivated suits. And so, they are seeking US government intervention in the court rulings. (Originally they had claimed sovereign immunity but the courts threw this out as the PA is not a nation.)

The US government has not yet made a decision in a case that forces "the Bush administration to choose between supporting compensation for victims of terrorism and bolstering the Palestinian Authority."

If they decide for the PA, then we will know that the US has completely and totally lost its way. ~~~~~~~~~~

Over a year ago, PA President Abbas asked Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to intervene but she said then that "the US [government] is not party to these enforcement proceedings." But now there has been a rethinking of the issues and ultimately the Justice Department will decide in this extremely complex case.

Families of Americans killed in Palestinian terror attacks sued the PA under a law passed by Congress in 1990 in response to the terrorist murder of Leon Klinghoffer, who was thrown off the Achille Lauro cruise ship in his wheel chair.

But today, bolstering the PA has become a priority for the US. As we all know, once the PA is stronger, there will be peace in the Middle East. What sort of people have won court cases on this issue? There is, for example, the mother of six whose husband, Aharon Ellis, a US citizen, was killed in 2002 while singing at a bar mitzvah in Hadera.

PA lawyers argue that "The judgment's potential interference with American foreign policy presents a unique and exceptional circumstance justifying relief... "

One of the lawyers who has represented the victims in many of these cases says, "If the State Department tips the scales of justice against the victims in order to support adjudicated terrorists, the war on terrorism will be seen throughout the world as a farce."

Methinks its time for the US to reexamine its foreign policy, if it leads to situations such as this. Actually I think monies that have been allocated for the PA by the US should be set aside in sufficient amounts to pay all those who have won judgments against the PA; that's the only way they'll ever see their money.

~~~~~~~~~~ He was surprised. Or so said Shas Faction head Eli Yishai, when he learned from press reports that Livni and Qurei had met Monday and Tuesday. You see, Olmert had promised to keep him abreast of all negotiations.